Browns vs. Chargers Prediction

NFL Predictions: Are Chargers laying too many points to Browns? 12/3/17

Are the Los Angeles Chargers laying too many points to the Cleveland Browns on Sunday? The red-hot Bolts are double-digit favorites for this 4:05 p.m. ET kickoff.

Who Oddsmakers Like: Los Angeles. According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, the Chargers are 13.5-point home favorites versus the Browns, who opened as 13-point road underdogs. As for the total, the number currently sits at 44 points after hitting the board at 42.5 points.

Who the Public Likes: Los Angeles. As of Sunday morning, just under 70% of betting tickets are on the Chargers to cover the spread.

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Who the Trends Like: Cleveland. The Browns are a perfect 5-0 against the spread in their last five games against the Chargers. The underdog, conversely, is also 5-0 at the betting window in the last five meetings as well.

Who We Like: Cleveland. I hate backing the Browns. Hate it. But I see too much value in Cleveland today. The Chargers could be missing both offensive tackles Russell Okung (knee) and Joe Barksdale (foot), who are questionable. The Bolts are red-hot but I think they're overpriced against a winless Browns team that actually beat the Chargers to avoid going 0-16 a year ago.

The Chargers are 6-13 against the spread in their last 19 games coming off a win. They're also 7-19 against the number in their last 26 home games and are 0-4 at the betting window in their last four games played in December. Finally, they're just 3-8 against the spread in their last 11 home games versus a team with a losing road record.

I often subscribe to the theory that losing teams always find ways to lose. The Browns will lose today, but if Deshone Kizer can cut down on the turnovers and Cleveland brings its defense, then I like the underdog to cover.

 

NFL WEEK 13 PREDICTIONS: CLEVELAND BROWNS +13.5

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