Dolphins vs. Bills Pick
AFC East rivals clash at Ralph Wilson Stadium in Week 12 when the Buffalo Bills host the Miami Dolphins at 1:00PM ET on Sunday.
Last week, Ricky Williams rushed for a pair of touchdowns and caught a passing TD as the Dolphins beat the Panthers 24-17 in Week 11. The Dolphins covered as a 3.5-point underdog, while the combined score went under the posted total of 42 points. Chad Henne also threw for 172 yards and a touchdown in the win.
The Bills covered as 8.5-point underdogs but failed to beat the Jaguars, 18-15. The combined score went under the posted total of 41 points as Ryan Fitzpatick threw for 297 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions for Buffalo. Terrell Owens also hauled in nine passes for 197 yards and a touchdown.
Oddsmakers from online sports book SBGGLOBAL.com have made the Dolphins 3.5-point favorites over the Bills in Week 12. The over/under total for Sunday’s matchup has been set at 40 points.
The key in this game is that the Bills can’t stop the run, which plays into the Dolphins’ strengths. Williams has looked great all season and should find plenty of running room against a Buffalo defense that is allowing 165.9 yards per game on the ground this season.
The Bills have trouble throwing the ball offensively and don’t score a ton of points, which certainly favors the under. Miami’s defense is allowing plenty of points, but their run defense is allowing a somewhat respectable 105.9 yards per game and should contain Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson.
Take Miami –3.5 in this matchup. The Dolphins are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games and 6-2 against the number in their last eight games on the road. Take the under in this matchup as well, as it has hit in four of Miami’s last six games when playing on the road against Buffalo. Neither team will put the ball in the air much and therefore the clock should be constantly running.
Our NFL Week 12 Free Pick for this matchup is: MIAMI DOLPHINS –3.5 and UNDER 40.
213 Miami Dolphins –3.5 (-180 moneyline) Over 40
214 Buffalo Bills +3.5 (+160 moneyline) Under 40
Miami is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games when playing Buffalo
Buffalo is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games
[QB] 09/28/2009 - Chad Pennington IR ( Shoulder )
[CB] 10/27/2009 - Will Allen IR ( Knee )
[RB] 10/20/2009 - Patrick Cobbs IR ( Knee )
[RB] 11/19/2009 - Ronnie Brown IR ( Foot )
[TE] 11/19/2009 - Anthony Fasano "?" ( Hip )
[DT] 11/19/2009 - Paul Soliai "?" ( Ankle )
[LB] 11/19/2009 - Eric Walden "?" ( Hamstring )
[DT] 11/19/2009 - Jason Ferguson injured last game, "?" ( Knee )
[OL] 11/19/2009 - Nate Garner injured last game, "?" ( Leg )
[WR] 11/15/2009 - James Hardy "?" Sunday vs. Jacksonville ( Knee )
[OT] 10/01/2009 - Brad Butler IR ( Knee )
[TE] 09/22/2009 - Derek Schouman IR ( Knee )
[CB] 10/01/2009 - Leodis McKelvin IR ( Fibula )
[LB] 10/12/2009 - Marcus Buggs IR ( Knee )
[LB] 10/14/2009 - Kawika Mitchell IR ( Knee )
[OL] 11/17/2009 - Jonathan Scott "?" Sunday vs. Jacksonville ( Personal )
[LB] 11/20/2009 - Keith Ellison IR ( Quad )
[CB] 11/03/2009 - Terrence McGee expected to miss 2 weeks ( Knee )
[DT] 11/15/2009 - Kyle Williams "?" Sunday vs. Jacksonville ( Knee )
[WR] 11/15/2009 - Roscoe Parrish "?" Sunday vs. Jacksonville ( Knee )
[OL] 11/16/2009 - Demetrius Bell out indefinitely ( Knee )
[CB] 11/17/2009 - Ashton Youboty is downgraded to doubtful Sunday vs. Jacksonville ( Ankle )
[S] 11/16/2009 - Donte Whitner "?" Sunday vs. Jacksonville ( Ankle )
[HC] 11/17/2009 - Dick Jauron has beend fired, DC Fewell Perry is expected to serve as interim coach ( None )
[te] 11/18/2009 - Derek Fine IR ( Knee )
[QB] 11/18/2009 - Ryan Fitzpatrick is expected to start Sunday vs. Jacksonville ( None )
[DT] 11/20/2009 - Marcus Stroud expected to miss Sunday vs. Jacksonville ( Knee )
Posted: 11/29/09 7:15AM ET