Bears vs. Lions Thanksgiving Prediction
With their third-string quarterback expected to start, the Lions are now 5.5-point home underdogs versus the Bears in the opener of the NFL’s three Thanksgiving Day matchups. Will Detroit cover versus its NFC North rivals at 12:30 p.m. ET?
305 Chicago Bears (-5.5) at 306 Detroit Lions (+5.5); O/U 37
12:30 p.m. ET, Thursday, November 28, 2019
Ford Field, Detroit, MI
According to our NFL Public Betting Chart page, the Bears are drawing 55% of the betting tickets ahead of tonight’s game.
Chicago Bears Fantasy Spin
David Montgomery labored to just 22 yards on 13 carries with two catches for nine yards on three targets Sunday in the Bears’ Week 12 win over the Giants. It was another tepid showing for Montgomery, who seems to have hit the proverbial rookie wall. November has not been kind to Montgomery, who has averaged a miserable 2.64 yards per carry over his last four contests. Adding to his recent misery, Sunday marked the 22-year-old's third straight game without a touchdown. Surviving purely on volume, Montgomery has devolved into a middling RB3 in fantasy. He'll only have a few days to shake off Sunday's disappointment with the Bears visiting Detroit on Thanksgiving Day.
Detroit Lions Fantasy Spin
NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports David Blough will start Week 13 against the Bears. Jeff Driskel (hamstring) is too sore to be relied upon as the starter, but the expectation is that Driskel will be the backup. In terms of strictly passing, it's a pretty lateral move for the Lions as Driskel has shown below-average arm talent. With that said, there are very few signs for optimism with Blough as the starter. Blough was an average Power 5 starter at Purdue and offers very little with his legs.
The Bears are 9-1 against the spread in their last 10 games versus division rivals and are 11-5 against the number in their last 16 games when facing an opponent with a losing record.
The Lions are winless against the spread in their last six games overall and are winless against the number in their last five conference games.
NFL Week 13 Prediction
Blough could surprise, but I doubt he’ll move the ball consistently versus Chicago’s vaunted defense. The Lions will likely have a simplified game plan offensively, one that allows Blough to make safe, short throws. The problem is that, while Detroit has a solid trio of receivers, the Lions have no running game. So eventually Blough will need to make a few deeper throws, which allows the Bears’ pass-rush to get home. While it’s hard to trust Mitchell Trubisky while also laying points, he shouldn’t have to do much today. Plus, one of his better games came against Matt Patricia’s defense just a few weeks ago so he should play well enough.
NFL WEEK 13 PREDICTION: CHICAGO BEARS -5.5