Bills vs. Lions Thanksgiving Prediction

Bills vs. Lions, 11/24/22 NFL Betting Prediction, Odds & Trends

The first of three Thanksgiving Day NFL games will take place at Ford Field on Thursday where the Lions will host the Bills at 12:30 p.m. ET. Is 9.5 too much to lay with the visitors or will Josh Allen and Co. roll today?

Game Matchup & Betting Odds

105 Buffalo Bills (-9.5) at 106 Detroit Lions (+9.5); o/u 54.5

12:30 p.m. ET, Thursday, November 24, 2022

Ford Field, Detroit, MI

Bills vs. Lions Public Betting Information

Our NFL Public Betting Information page indicates that 51% of public bettors are currently backing the Lions when it comes to the spread. This information is subject to change throughout the day, however, so be sure to check the link so you’re receiving the most up-to-date public betting data.

Buffalo Bills DFS Spin

Josh Allen completed 18-of-27 passed for 197 yards and a touchdown in the Bills' 31-23, Week 11 win over the Browns. Allen rushed three times for seven yards but had a 19-yard scramble called back by a penalty. The Bills were horrific at closing out drives in this game which resulted in them kicking six field goals. Buffalo also opened the game with a trio of three-and-outs that combined for 12 yards. Allen sailed three short passes on these drives before getting dialed in later in the game. It was a sleepy performance against an inferior opponent from the Bills, but a few drives that end in six points instead of three would have changed the narrative. Despite the weak showing, Allen remains the QB1 overall for his Week 12 matchup with the Lions. Allen gets to shred a horrid Detroit defense to celebrate Thanksgiving.

Detroit Lions DFS Spin

D'Andre Swift (ankle/shoulder) was removed from the Week 12 injury report. Swift was a full participant in practice all week, but that doesn't mean he will see a large workload versus the Bills. The Lions have been splitting his role, which already meant taking the backseat to Jamaal Williams, with Justin Jackson. Swift hasn't seen more than 10 touches in a game since Week 1. He will be a touchdown-or-bust RB4 in Week 12.

Bills vs. Lions Betting Trends

Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings

Bills are 6-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record

Bills are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games in November

Lions are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games

Bills vs. Lions Prediction:

The Lions have won back-to-back games and are catching 9.5 at home, but they’re also not very good. Thus, I’m avoiding the side and rolling with the total. The under is a perfect 5-0 in the last five meetings between these two teams, is 8-3 in the Bills’ last 11 games played on Thursday and has cashed in six of Buffalo’s last eight games overall. The under is also 4-1 in the Lions’ last five games at Ford Field when they’re playing a team with a winning road record.

NFL WEEK 12 PREDICTION: BILLS/LIONS UNDER 54.5

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