Texans vs. Lions Over/Under Prediction
The first game of Thanksgiving Day’s triple-header in the NFL will take place in Detroit where the Lions will host the Texans at 12:30 p.m. ET. With the total sitting in the low-50s, will these teams struggle to get the final score over the total or is this matchup a safe bet to turn into a shootout?
121 Houston Texans (-2.5) at 122 Detroit Lions (+2.5); o/u 51.5
12:30 p.m. ET, Thursday, November 26, 2020
Venue: Ford Field, Detroit, MI
Houston Texans DFS Spin
Deshaun Watson has accounted for 88 percent of the Texans' offensive yardage this season. That would be the highest rate for a player in the past decade if it holds for the next six weeks. Houston's offense is a bottom-tier unit without their all-world QB, who threw for 344 yards and three touchdowns in Week 11 against the Patriots. If Houston is in a good spot against a suspect defense, he's going to produce or no one in the Texans' offense is going or produce. Watson is a high-end QB1 for Week 12 against a Detroit defense that just gave up 16.7 fantasy points to P.J. Walker.
Detroit Lions DFS Spin
The Lions didn't enter the red zone once in their 20-0 Week 11 loss to the Panthers. The humiliating loss may have put the final touches on Matt Patricia's catastrophic tenure as Detroit's head coach. The team gained just 185 yards against a middling Carolina defense, averaging a mind numbingly low 3.4 yards per play. Against the worst third down defense in the NFL, Detroit converted just three of 14 third downs. The Lions' offensive ineptitude came as Carolina spot starter P.J. Walker committed a couple turnovers that would have been back breakers against almost any other team. Fantasy managers should hope Kenny Golladay and DeAndre Swift aren't pulled under by the team's broken offense.
Texans vs. Lions Betting Prediction
Even though the Lions were shutout last week in Carolina, the over has been profitable when they play in Detroit. The over is 10-1 in the Lions’ last 11 home games, is 6-0 in their last six home games when facing an opponent with a losing road record and is 7-1 in their last eight games when a home underdog. On the other side, the over is 5-1 in the Texans’ last six road games, is 4-1 in their last five games as a road favorite and has cashed in five of Houston’s last seven games coming off a win.
THANKSGIVING OVER/UNDER PREDICTION: TEXANS/LIONS OVER 51.5