Broncos vs. Bills ATS Prediction
The Bills are laying four points to the Broncos in Sunday’s 1:00 p.m. ET matchup in Buffalo. Given that the Bills opened as 5.5-point favorites, should bettors follow the line movement and back the underdog Broncos?
253 Denver Broncos (+4) at 254 Buffalo Bills (-4); O/U 37
1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, November 24, 2019
New Era Field, Orchard Park, New York
According to our NFL Public Betting Chart page, the Bills are drawing 66% of the betting tickets ahead of tonight’s game.
Denver Broncos Fantasy Spin
Phillip Lindsay (foot, wrist) wasn't listed on the Broncos' final injury report. The Broncos largely split reps between Lindsay and Royce Freeman in Weeks 1-9, but Lindsay emerged as the backfield's undisputed lead RB in Week 11. We should feel confident that this will continue to be the case moving forward, as pregame reports noted that the offense wanted to feature Lindsay as the clear-cut No. 1 RB. The offense has already scored over 20 points in more games with Brandon Allen (2) than Joe Flacco (1). The ceiling still isn't super high here, particularly in a Week 12 road matchup against the Bills, but Lindsay should be able to flirt with consistent RB2 production with this sort of workload.
Buffalo Bills Fantasy Spin
John Brown snatched nine catches for 137 yards and two touchdowns on 14 targets Sunday in the Bills’ Week 11 win over the Dolphins. Already among the safer floor plays at his position—Sunday marked Brown's 10th straight 50-yard game—Smokey finally gave us a glimpse of his ceiling in Week 11. Playing a Dolphins secondary missing its top DB (Xavien Howard was lost to season-ending injured reserve), Brown had no trouble pouring it on against Miami, soaking up five catches for 97 yards in the first half alone. His first touchdown was a simple pitch-and-catch from gunslinger Josh Allen, who fired a laser to Brown down the right sideline. Smokey only had one man to beat, juking Bobby McCain for the 40-yard score. His second end-zone visit came on a nine-yard bootleg. On pace for 1,307 yards, the 29-year-old is having a career year. Broncos corner Chris Harris presents a daunting assignment in Week 12, though Brown has a significant speed advantage (4.34 forty time compared to Harris' 4.53).
The Broncos are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games overall and have covered the number in all four of their last four games played in the month of November.
The Bills are 8-3-1 against the spread in their last 12 games overall and have covered the spread in seven of their last 10 games when playing the 12th week of the NFL season.
NFL Week 12 Prediction
The Broncos raced out to a 20-0 halftime lead last week but Brandon Allen struggled in the second half as Denver’s defense was hung out to dry by its offense. A lot of the Broncos’ big plays were essentially on jump balls against a Vikings secondary that has had its problems this season. I don’t expect Allen to have those same opportunities today in Buffalo. The Bills can be had on the ground but not through the air. I don’t believe the Broncos’ rushing attack is good enough to take advantage of that weakness. Denver’s defense will keep the team in the game but just like last week, I expect that unit to fade in the second half.
NFL WEEK 12 PREDICTION: BUFFALO BILLS -4