Bucs vs. Falcons Total Prediction
The over/under in Sunday’s NFC South clash between the Bucs and Falcons sits at 51.5 as oddsmakers expect a potential shootout. That said, with the way Atlanta has played defensively the past two weeks, is the under the best play for bettors?
263 Tampa Bay Bucs (+4) at 264 Atlanta Falcons (-4); O/U 51.5
1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, November 24, 2019
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
According to our NFL Public Betting Chart page, the Falcons are drawing 70% of the betting tickets ahead of tonight’s game.
Tampa Bay Bucs Fantasy Spin
Jameis Winston completed 30-of-51 passes for 313 yards, two touchdowns, and four interceptions in Tampa Bay's Week 11 loss to the Saints. It's officially the second time this season Winston's tossed four interceptions. Down 27-17 with 5:07 remaining in the fourth quarter, Winston reared back and gifted S Marcus Williams a 55-yard pick-six to clinch the game for the Saints. Winston's final turnover on the afternoon occurred on Tampa Bay's ensuing drive during a soft-tossed one-yard fade route to Mike Evans that left the receiver audibly yelling at his signal-caller as the two marched off the field. Despite pacing for 4,925 passing yards through 10 games in '19, Winston's current interception rate puts him firmly in line to become the first quarterback to throw 29 picks since Brett Favre did so back in 2005; Eli Manning more recently threw 27 in 2013. Even so, Winston's fantasy production keeps him in play as a low-end QB1 in Week 12 against the Falcons.
Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Spin
Devonta Freeman (foot) is out for Week 12 against the Buccaneers. Austin Hooper (MCL) will also be a spectator Sunday. Freeman hasn't played or practiced since leaving Week 10 with a sprained foot. Brian Hill will get another bite at the apple after disappointing in his starting debut against the Panthers last week (15 carries for 30 yards). Kenjon Barber and Qadree Ollison should also see carries, though neither are recommended plays against Tampa Bay's stout run defense. Hill should be in the RB3/flex mix.
The over is 7-0 in the Bucs’ last seven conference games, is 5-0 in their last five games coming off a loss and is 18-7-1 in their last 26 road games.
The under is 4-0 in the Falcons’ last four games overall and is 4-0 in their last four home games.
NFL Week 12 Prediction
This is a great matchup for the Falcons offense, as their trio of Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley should carve up the Bucs’ secondary. Winston, while turnover prone, also has excellent weapons in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, so taking the over looks profitable on the surface. That said, this Atlanta defense has figured something out. The Falcons held the Saints and Panthers to zero touchdowns on the road the last two weeks and if you go back to Atlanta’s game against the Seahawks four weeks ago, the team has played well dating back 10 quarters now. While some of that could be good luck (it’s not as if the Panthers didn’t move the ball last week, they simply turned the ball over multiple times), the point remains: This is not the same Falcons defense that we saw in the first two months of the season. And for that, I like the final score to stay under.
NFL WEEK 12 PREDICTION: BUCS/FALCONS UNDER 51.5