Three Teams on Upset Alert in Week 11
Last week we recommended backing the Lions and Vikings with both covering the spread and Minnesota winning outright.
Let’s take a look at three teams on upset alert this week and see if we can keep crushing the books with our NFL picks!
Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans
Sunday, November 21, 2021 - 1:00 PM ET at Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
It’s hard to imagine any team being on upset alert with the Texans as the team with which to be wary. But that’s the case this week as the Titans are riding a six-game winning streak and will be overlooking the woeful Texans with an eye towards the surging Patriots the following week in Foxboro. It’s the proverbial trap game and there isn’t a more vulnerable opponent to look past than the Texans.
Secondly, we should also note that the Tennessee offense has gained a combined total of 458 total yards in the two games since Derrick Henry injured his foot against the Colts. Yes, that’s an average of 229 combined passing and rushing yards. As bad as Houston is, they have a very real chance in this game and the NFL odds being offered at all of the premier sportsbooks are showing the Titans favored by as many as 10 ½ points. Let’s not overthink it, let’s bet it, the road dog that is, to cover the number and maybe, just maybe, pull an unlikely upset!
Upset Alert: Texans +10 ½ (-110) or +375 on the moneyline at BetOnline
Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets
Sunday, November 21, 2021 - 1:00 PM ET at MetLife Stadium
The Jets look like a very live home dog here and you would do well to avail yourself of BMR’s NFL Week 11 Parlay! Whether or not those sharpshooters over at Bookmakers Review have the Jets in their betting sights is something you will have to find out for yourself but they are worth a wager as far as we’re concerned.
The breaking news is that Zach Wilson won’t start on Sunday as the Jets remain cautious in their handling of the injured young quarterback. But that will pave the way for veteran gunslinger, Joe Flacco, to deal under center against the 28th ranked passing defense, surrendering nearly 274 passing yards per game.
There isn’t too much recent game film on Flacco as he has been relegated to clipboard holding since he relinquished the starting job to Lamar Jackson in Baltimore three years ago. But this could be an ideal opportunity for him to use his vast experience against a poor passing defense. The Jets are getting as much as a 3 ½ point head start at home and they probably won’t need any of them as we expect them to win this one outright!
Upset Alert: Jets +3 ½ (-108) or +155 on the moneyline at Heritage
Indianapolis Colts vs. Buffalo Bills
Sunday, November 21, 2021 - 1:00 PM ET at Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
The Bills looked like their old selves in their 45-17 win over the Jets last week. Josh Allen was dealing big time and it paid off with 366 yards through the air and a pair of touchdowns. But that impressive display will set the public up for a big fall as they put their money on the touchdown home favorites in this one.
We know the Bills defense does a solid job of pressuring the quarterback but Carson Wentz has one of the better offensive lines in front of him and that should give him a bit more time in the pocket than most quarterbacks facing this Buffalo defense. But the real key is having Jonathan Taylor crushing it out of the backfield for the Colts as a talented runner and outlet receiver.
Let’s not forget that Buffalo will be working on a short week with a Thanksgiving date against the Saints on tap so they may not be fully focused for this one. The odds are too tempting to ignore so we will grab the points and back the road pup here.
Upset Alert: Colts +7 ½ (-115) or +270 on the moneyline at Bovada