Colts vs. Bills Prediction
The Colts are back in the AFC wild card mix but they have a difficult challenge on Sunday when they visit the Bills at 1:00 p.m. ET. Will Indy at least cover as a 7-point road underdog or is there a better bet on the board?
455 Indianapolis Colts (+7) at 456 Buffalo Bills (-7); o/u 49.5
1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, November 21, 2021
Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Indianapolis Colts DFS Spin
Carson Wentz completed 22-of-34 passes for 180 yards in the Colts' Week 10 win over Jacksonville. Wentz wasn't needed with Jonathan Taylor running for over 100 yards in the first half. He spent most of the second half managing the game, setting up a field goal late in the fourth quarter on a throw to Michael Pittman that gave the Colts a two-score lead. This marks the first time since Week 3 Wentz hasn't thrown a touchdown. Wentz had nine TDs over the last three weeks, though six of those came against the Jets and Titans, so he was due for some regression. Wentz's struggles could extend into Week 11 for a matchup with Buffalo's top-ranked secondary.
Buffalo Bills DFS Spin
Josh Allen completed 21-of-28 passes for 366 yards, two touchdowns and an interception in the Bills' 45-17, Week 10 win over the Jets. One week after looking nothing like himself in a stunning loss to the Jags, Allen got his deep game going again as the Bills got the run game going, rushing for 24/139/4. Allen completed passes of 57, 23, 36, 20 and 43 yards, time and again exposing the defense-less Jets deep. Stefon Diggs was the recipient on three of those 20-plus yard completions as the duo finally got their down-field connection going after a half season of frustration. Allen's scores were a 12-yarder to Diggs and 15-yard wheel route to Matt Breida of all people. For Week 11, Allen will get a Colts defense allowing more big plays than usual in 2021.
NFL Week 11 Betting Prediction
The Colts are just 1-3-1 against the spread in their last five meetings with the Bills in Buffalo, while the favorite is 7-3-1 against the number in the last 11 meetings between these two teams and the home side is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The Bills, meanwhile, are 11-5 against the spread in their last 16 games coming off a win, are 9-4-1 against the number in their last 14 games as a favorite and are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite.
NFL WEEK 11 PREDICTION: BUFFALO BILLS -7