Bucs vs. Dolphins Pick
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers look to make it two in a row when they visit Land Shark Stadium on Sunday to play the Miami Dolphins.
The Bucs earned their first victory of the season last week when they beat the Packers 38-28 as a 9.5-point underdog in Week 9. The combined score went over the posted total of 43 points as rookie quarterback Josh Freeman threw for 205 yards with three touchdowns and an interception for Tampa. Kellen Winslow also caught four passes for 57 yards and a touchdown.
The Dolphins lost to the Patriots 27-17, but did cover as 10.5-point underdogs. The combined score fell under the posted total of 47 points as Chad Henne threw for 219 yards and Ronnie Brown rushed for 48 yards on 15 carries and a touchdown reception.
Oddsmakers from online sports book SPORTSBETTING.com have made the Dolphins 10-point home favorites over the Bucs in Week 10. The over/under total for this game has been set at 43 points.
The trends favor the Dolphins in this matchup, who are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games while the Bucs are just 2-8 against the number in their last 10. However, Miami is just 1-5 against the spread in its last six games when playing Tampa and 2-7 against the number in its last nine games at home.
This is a time when we advise you to punt the previous matchups and fight your instincts to go with a team coming off a big upset. Freeman played too clean a game last week and we expect him to make some rookie mistakes this week on the road. Miami isn’t an offensive powerhouse by any means, but the Dolphins are a tough bunch and will move the ball at will against a suspect Tampa Bay defense.
Take the Dolphins and the chalk this week, as well as the over, which has covered in four of Miami’s last five games at home. It’s also hit in four of Tampa Bay’s last six games when playing Miami and should cover again on Sunday.
Our NFL Week 10 Free Pick for this matchup is: MIAMI DOLPHINS -10 and OVER 43.
229 Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10 Over 43
230 Miami Dolphins –10 Under 43
Tampa Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing Miami
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Miami is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
[LB] 08/23/2009 - Angelo Crowell IR ( Bicep )
[CB] 09/20/2009 - EJ Biggers IR ( Shoulder )
[OT] 09/06/2009 - Xavier Fulton IR ( Knee )
[P] 08/17/2009 - Josh Bidwell IR ( Hip )
[S] 09/21/2009 - Jermaine Phillips IR ( Thumb )
[FB] 10/20/2009 - B.J. Askew IR ( Neck )
[WR] 11/08/2009 - Antonio Bryant "?" Sunday vs. Miami ( Knee )
[S] 11/11/2009 - Will Allen IR ( Thumb )
[LB] 11/11/2009 - Rod Wilson IR ( Hamstring )
[WR] 11/11/2009 - Michael Clayton "?" Sunday vs. Miami ( Wrist )
[QB] 09/28/2009 - Chad Pennington IR ( Shoulder )
[CB] 10/27/2009 - Will Allen IR ( Knee )
[LB] 11/08/2009 - Channing Crowder "?" Sunday vs. Tampa Bay ( Shoulder )
[RB] 10/20/2009 - Patrick Cobbs IR ( Knee )
[DT] 11/08/2009 - Jason Ferguson "?" Sunday vs. Tampa Bay ( Elbow )
[og] 11/12/2009 - Justin Smiley "?" Sunday vs. Tampa Bay ( Shoulder )
Posted: 11/15/09 7:35AM ET