Browns vs. Broncos Week 9 Prediction
The Browns have won just two games this season but are laying four points as a favorite today in Denver versus Von Miller and the Broncos at 4:25 p.m. ET. Even with Brandon Allen starting under center for the Broncos, is the home underdog the play for bettors in Week 9?
469 Cleveland Browns (-4) at 470 Denver Broncos (+4); O/U 39
4:25 p.m. ET, Sunday, November 3, 2019
Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
According to our NFL Public Betting Chart page, the Browns are drawing 56% of the betting tickets ahead of tonight’s game.
Cleveland Browns Fantasy Spin
Odell Beckham (groin) wasn't listed on the Browns' final injury report. OBJ will have his hands full this week against stud Broncos CB Chris Harris, who has won all three of his shadow matchups this season against Allen Robinson (4-41-0), Davante Adams (4-56-0) and T.Y. Hilton (2-54-0). Meanwhile, OBJ is averaging 8.7 targets per game this season. He'd previously never seen fewer than 10.3 targets per game in five seasons with the Giants. Beckham's 67 percent catchable pass rate ranks just 53rd among 70 WRs with at least 30 targets this season (PFF).
Denver Broncos Fantasy Spin
Broncos placed Joe Flacco (neck) on injured reserve. Flacco's season is over. He threw six touchdowns and five interceptions in eight games while averaging a pedestrian 227 passing yards per contest. Brandon Allen will start Sunday's matchup against the Browns, while the Broncos promoted Brett Rypien from the practice squad to serve as the backup in a corresponding roster move. Courtland Sutton is the offense's only viable pass catcher for fantasy purposes at the moment.
The Browns are just 21-43-1 against the spread in their last 65 games overall and are 16-35 at the betting window in their last 51 games coming off a loss.
The Broncos haven’t been profitable at the betting window either, posting a 5-11-1 ATS record in their last 17 home games and going 7-16 against the number in their last 23 games coming off a loss.
NFL Week 9 Prediction
The Browns are getting way too much love from oddsmakers and bettors in this spot. They’re 2-5, Baker Mayfield has thrown more interceptions than any quarterback in the league and their defense is talented, but not dominant. Meanwhile, Allen starts for the Broncos and while he’s a complete unknown, are we sure he’s that much of a downgrade from Flacco? At least he’s more mobile than Flacco, who was often a sitting duck in the pocket. I would think Allen is more willing to throw the ball vertically too, since Flacco often took opportunities to check the ball down any chance he could. Meanwhile, the Broncos defense has been underrated and should force a frustrated Mayfield into plenty of mistakes. The Broncos might not win outright, but this is a field goal game the way I see it.
NFL WEEK 9 PREDICTION: DENVER BRONCOS +4