Packers vs. Chiefs Total Prediction
Patrick Mahomes won’t suit up for the Chiefs on Sunday night when the team hosts the Packers at 8:20 p.m. ET. With the total dropping from 48 down to 47.5, where’s the best value for bettors?
275 Green Bay Packers (-4) at 276 Kansas City Chiefs (+4); O/U 47.5
8:20 p.m. ET, Sunday, October 27, 2019
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Public Betting Trends
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the Packers are receiving 57% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks.
Green Bay Packers Fantasy Spin
Davante Adams (toe) is doubtful for the Packers' Week 8 matchup against the Chiefs. Both coach Matt LaFleur as well as Adams himself noted how much better the Packers' No. 1 WR has been feeling this week, but he's ultimately expected to once again be on the sidelines come Sunday. Last week the Packers got all their pass-game options involved, as nobody had more than five targets despite Aaron Rodgers throwing for 429 yards and five touchdowns. Overall, each of Allen Lazard (85% snaps, 4 targets in Week 7), Jake Kumerow (72%, 2), Geronimo Allison (57%, 5), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (33%, 2) and Darrius Shepherd (5%,0) figure to be involved in some capacity.
Kansas City Chiefs Fantasy Spin
Coach Andy Reid confirmed Patrick Mahomes (knee) won't suit up Sunday against the Packers. The 2018 MVP is reportedly expected to miss at least three weeks, but Mahomes somehow managed to get in limited practices throughout the week. It'd still be incredibly surprising to see him suit up anytime soon. None of the Chiefs' complementary options are on the fantasy radar as long as Mahomes is sidelined, but continue to fire up Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and (to a lesser extent) LeSean McCoy in fantasy formats of all shapes and sizes.
NFL Betting Trends
The over is 18-4 in the Packers’ last 22 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
The over is 5-1-1 in the Chiefs’ last seven games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
The over is 4-1 in the last five meetings but I don’t see how the Chiefs find the end zone consistently enough to help cash the over. Besides, even with Mahomes under center the past year-and-a-half, the under is still 51-25-1 in the Chiefs’ last 77 home games. The under is also 17-8 in the Chiefs’ last 25 home games versus an opponent with a winning road record and is 6-0 in the Packers’ last six games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
NFL Week 8 Prediction: Packers/Chiefs UNDER 47.5