Chiefs vs. Broncos TNF Prediction
Is the Thursday Night Football Game this week a trap for bettors? The Chiefs are struggling, but are laying only a field goal to the host Broncos. Where is the value for bettors in this AFC West matchup?
303 Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at 304 Denver Broncos (+3); O/U 49.5
8:20 p.m. ET, Thursday, October 17, 2019
Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
According to our NFL Public Betting Chart page, the Chiefs are drawing 70% of the betting tickets ahead of Thursday night’s game.
Kansas City Chiefs Fantasy Spin
NFL Network's James Palmer said Patrick Mahomes is dealing with a "legit" ankle injury. Speaking on Mahomes' relative lack of production the past few games (we say "relative" because he's still on pace to shatter the league's single-season passing yards record), Palmer said the quarterback's ankle ailment, an injury he picked up in Week 1 and later aggravated against the Colts in Week 5, is "probably worse than most people think it is." Palmer noted that opponents have emphasized man coverage schemes against the hobbled MVP, who has been reluctant to abandon the pocket throughout his injury. Despite his ankle woes, Mahomes has only missed nine offensive snaps this year and none since Week 1.
Denver Broncos Fantasy Spin
Emmanuel Sanders (knee) was upgraded to "full" in Tuesday's practice. In other words, he will be out there against the Chiefs. Even in a plus matchup, Sanders will be a low-end WR3. Courtland Sutton has taken control of the Broncos' receiver corps, currently checking in as ninth in the league in receiving (477).
The Chiefs are a perfect 5-0 against the spread in the last five meetings between these two teams in Denver and are 6-1 against the number in their last seven games versus the Broncos overall.
While the home team is just 2-9 against the spread in the last 11 meetings, the underdog has covered in seven of the previous 10 meetings.
Thursday Night NFL Prediction
This has trap game written all over it. The Chiefs are only laying a field goal to a Broncos team that has no scoring punch? No thanks. Give me Denver. Oddsmakers know something here and are setting up bettors to fail. Sammy Watkins has been ruled out, as well as a few others along the Chiefs’ offensive and defensive line. That includes Eric Fisher, Andrew Wylie, Chris Jones and cornerback Kendall Fuller as well. The Broncos’ pass rush came alive last week versus Tennessee and the Titans couldn’t move the ball offensively. While Patrick Mahomes and Co. have more firepower than the Titans, I also see Mahomes running for his life on a bad ankle. Give me the points.
NFL WEEK 7 PREDICTION: Denver Broncos +3