Lions vs. Packers MNF Total Prediction
NFC North rivals clash in Green Bay tonight when the Packers host the Lions at 8:15 p.m. ET. With the total sitting at 45.5, where is the value for bettors when it comes to the over/under?
275 Detroit Lions (+3.5) at 276 Green Bay Packers (-3.5); O/U 45.5
8:15 p.m. ET, Monday, October 14, 2019
Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
Public Betting Trends
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the Packers are receiving 59% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks.
Detroit Lions Fantasy Spin
T.J. Hockenson (concussion) is officially questionable for Week 6 against the Packers. Hockenson was a full participant at Saturday's practice and Lion.com's Tim Twentyman reported Hockenson was "on pace to be cleared" for Monday Night Football. The rookie tight end looks like he'll be activated in time, but it's not a guarantee, making him a risky start this week. Hockenson is on the TE1/2 borderline when he's healthy.
Green Bay Packers Fantasy Spin
Davante Adams (toe) has been ruled out for Week 6 against the Lions. This was expected after Adams didn't practice all week. Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Geronimo Allison will continue to start, with Jake Kumerow playing in three-wide sets. Adams was given a 2-6 week timetable when he went down and has a chance to return in Week 7.
NFL Betting Trends
The under is 5-1 in the Lions’ last six games following a bye week and is 5-1 in their last six games following a straight up loss, too.
The under is a perfect 5-0 in the Packers’ last five divisional games and 5-0 in their last five games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous contest.
The over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between these two teams but I’m going to buck that trend tonight. Through the first five weeks of the season, the Packers ranked 9th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric and the Lions weren’t far behind at 12th. Green Bay has done an excellent job defending the pass this year, ranking 5th in the DVOA metric but can be had on the ground (28th). Meanwhile, the Lions are 12th against the pass according to Football Outsiders, and 14th versus the run. If Detroit can get its ground game going, then the Lions can chew clock and keep Aaron Rodgers and Co. on the sidelines. And speaking of Rodgers, he and new head coach/play-caller Matt LaFleur are still working out the kinks in Green Bay’s new offense. Thus, I see this being a lower-scoring game than oddsmakers.
NFL Week 6 Prediction: Lions/Packers UNDER 45.5