Giants vs. Patriots TNF Prediction
The Patriots should improve to 5-0 when they host the 2-3 Giants on Thursday Night Football but they’re also laying 17 points as a home favorite. Is the line overly inflated or are Tom Brady and Co. the only play?
103 New York Giants (+17) at 104 New England Patriots (-17); O/U 41
8:20 p.m. ET, Thursday, October 10, 2019
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Public Betting Trends
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the Patriots are receiving 62% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks.
New York Giants Fantasy Spin
Wayne Gallman (concussion) won't play in Week 6 against the Patriots. Already short Saquon Barkley (ankle) and Sterling Shepard (concussion), the Giants will also be without Gallman in an impossible short turnaround at Gillette Stadium. Jon Hilliman will be the team's only available back barring Austin Walter getting the call from the practice squad. This is a situation to avoid entirely as Barkley should be back for New York's Week 7 tilt against the Cardinals.
New England Patriots Fantasy Spin
Julian Edelman (chest) is questionable for Week 6 against the Giants. Edelman's been listed as questionable the past two weeks and tallied 12/140/1 on 16 targets. He'll play and remain a strong WR2 at home against a Giants secondary that's permitted the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts. Josh Gordon (knee) is also notably questionable for Thursday night.
NFL Betting Trends
The Giants are 8-1 in their last nine road games and have covered in eight straight after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
The Patriots are 40-17-2 against the number in their last 59 home games and have covered the spread in 43 of their last 62 overall.
This is too many points, especially for a game with a total of only 41. If oddsmakers believe the game could be a defensive struggle, then why lay 17 points? Granted, the Giants are incredibly banged-up offensively and their defense has struggled, but the Pats are dealing with injuries of their own on offense. The Giants are 5-0 against the spread in their last five games versus the Patriots and are 4-1 against the number in their last five trips to Foxborough. The value is with the dog here.
NFL Week 6 Prediction: New York Giants +17