Patriots vs. Redskins Week 5 Prediction
The New England Patriots figure to improve to 5-0 on Sunday when they visit the dreadful Washington Redskins at 1:00 p.m. ET. That said, is 16 points too much to lay on the Pats or will they roll?
461 New England Patriots (-16) at 462 Washington Redskins (+16); O/U 42.5
1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, October 6, 2019
FedExField, Landover, Maryland
Public Betting Trends
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the Patriots are receiving 73% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks.
New England Patriots Fantasy Spin
Josh Gordon (knee) wasn't listed on the Patriots' final injury report. Gordon is good to go for Sunday's matchup against the Redskins. Flash hasn't managed to quite breakout through four weeks. That could change in a potential shadow date against Josh Norman. Alshon Jeffery (5-49-1) and Amari Cooper (4-44-1) each managed to find the end zone this season in shadow matchups with the once-elite CB, and Norman's pedestrian 7% snap rate in the slot means that the Patriots can easily free up Gordon from the matchup if they feel like it.
Washington Redskins Fantasy Spin
Terry McLaurin (hamstring) is a game-time decision for the Redskins' Week 5 matchup against the Patriots. McLaurin didn't suit up last week, but appeared to be a true game-time decision based on pregame reports. He appears to at least have a shot to suit up Sunday after managing to get in limited practices throughout the week. Regardless of McLaurin's ultimate status, it's best to stay away from these Washington pass catchers in this brutal spot. This includes poor Trey Quinn, who broke free for sure-fire chunk plays twice in Week 4 only to be overthrown on both occasions.
NFL Betting Trends
The Patriots are 15-3 against the spread in their last 18 games played in Week 5 and are 20-9 at the window in their last 29 road games.
The Redskins have failed to cover in four of their last five games overall and are winless against the number in their last four home games.
From a matchup standpoint, there’s nothing to like about the home team in this matchup. The Redskins are overmatched by the Patriots in all three facets and I wouldn’t be shocked if New England rolled. That said, if you’re looking for value, the value is with Washington. This line feels inflated based on the Pats’ dominance and the Redskins’ immense struggles. Public bettors are all over New England and are willing to lay the points, which is why the line jumped from 14.5 up to 16. At some point, I expect sharps to come back in and hit Washington at that number and force the line back down. At 16, I’ll take a flier on the hapless Redskins with the Pats coming off a physical game in Buffalo last Sunday and traveling on back-to-back weeks.
NFL Week 5 Prediction: Washington Redskins +16