Falcons vs. Texans Week 5 Prediction
A pair of struggling teams will meet in Houston on Sunday when the Texans host the Falcons at 1:00 p.m. ET. Is four points too much to lay with the Texans or will they cruise this afternoon?
467 Atlanta Falcons (+4) at 468 Houston Texans (-4); O/U 50
1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, October 6, 2019
NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Public Betting Trends
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the Texans are receiving 57% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks.
Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Spin
Matt Ryan completed 35-of-53 passes for 397 yards in Atlanta's Week 4 loss to the Titans. Throw out the box score. The Falcons found themselves in an early 24-7 hole heading into the locker room, which paved the way for Ryan to pepper Austin Hooper (9/130) and Mohamed Sanu (9/91) for an entire half's worth of garbage time. It wasn't all the defense's fault as the Falcons did lose both Alex Mack (elbow) and Jamon Brown (concussion) for a number of series, but Desmond Trufant and Isaiah Oliver got dog-walked early enough to force Ryan into a terrible situation under center, allowing him to eclipse the 300-yard barrier for the fourth time in as many games. Although the offense appeared lifeless Sunday, Ryan proved he'll have no issues posting fantasy production no matter the game script. He'll be a low-end QB1 in Week 5 against the Texans.
Houston Texans Fantasy Spin
DeAndre Hopkins caught 5-of-8 targets for 41 scoreless yards in the Texans' Week 4 loss to the Panthers. Two of Hopkins' catches came on the final drive of the game thanks to off coverage. He's now failed to find the end zone or surpass even 70 yards in three consecutive games. Hopkins hasn't had the easiest CB matchups during this stretch, matching up with Jalen Ramsey, Casey Hayward and James Bradberry in Weeks 2-4, respectively. The most concerning metric is his mundane number of targets, as Hopkins has averaged just 7.7 targets in this slump. Nuk is in a prime bounce-back spot next week against the Falcons.
NFL Betting Trends
The Falcons are 1-6 against the spread in their last seven road games and are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games overall.
The Texans are 1-13 against the spread in their last 14 games played in Week 5.
If you followed my picks last week, you would know that I faded the Falcons in their matchup with the Titans. That’s because Atlanta has serious issues on both sides of the ball and despite Houston’s struggles, I don’t like anything about the Falcons right now. Their offensive line is banged-up and struggling, which has led to the turnover-prone Matt Ryan to press. The defense also has problems, with zero pass rush and a pass defense that ranks 21st in the league. Good luck trying to slow down Hopkins and Co., Dan Quinn.
NFL Week 5 Prediction: Houston Texans -4