Colts vs. Chiefs SNF Prediction
The Sunday Night Football matchup is intriguing in Week 5 as the Indianapolis Colts head to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs at 8:20 p.m. ET. Will the Chiefs cover as a double-digit home favorite or is that too many points to lay given the matchup?
475 Indianapolis Colts (+11) at 476 Kansas City Chiefs (-11); O/U 56
8:20 p.m. ET, Sunday, October 6, 2019
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Public Betting Trends
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the Chiefs are receiving 58% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks.
Indianapolis Colts Fantasy Spin
ESPN's Adam Schefter reports T.Y. Hilton (quad) is expected to play in Week 5 against the Chiefs. Hilton got in a few limited practices to close the week, so he'll undoubtedly be out there for Indy's tilt against Kansas City. The Colts aren't getting any credit being double-digit road dogs (+11) in Week 5's highest projected total (56), but that simply makes for negative game script that Hilton should be able to take advantage of given Jacoby Brissett's success through the air so far on the year. Barring any reports of limitations prior to kick-off, consider Hilton a Top 20 option at his position in Week 5.
Kansas City Chiefs Fantasy Spin
ESPN's Adam Schefter reports Sammy Watkins (shoulder) is expected to play in Week 5 against the Colts. Watkins was surprisingly downgraded on Friday but apparently his injury wasn't too harsh. He'll suit up and primarily square off against the Colts from the slot alongside rookie Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson. Now back in Arrowhead Stadium, all three should be considered Top 40 options worthy of starting across all formats in Week 5.
NFL Betting Trends
The Colts are 8-1 against the spread in their last nine games versus an opponent with a winning record and are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games when playing in Week 5.
The Chiefs are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games played in the month of October and are 5-2 against the number in their last seven games overall.
The Colts are once again banged-up but this is a spot to love them because under Frank Reich the last two years, they’ve showed up for bigger matchups. Getting Hilton back is huge for Jacoby Brissett and the offense and while Patrick Mahomes and Co. will likely take advantage of a depleted Indianapolis defense, this is just too many points to hand a pesky Colts squad. Indy is 11-5 against the spread in its last 16 games versus the Chiefs and is 7-2 against the number in its last nine trips to Arrowhead. The Colts, who lost last week as a 6.5-point home favorite versus the Raiders, are also 38-18 at the betting window in their last 56 games following a straight up loss.
NFL Week 5 Prediction: Indianapolis Colts +11