Colts vs. Chiefs Total Prediction
The Colts will look to rebound from their surprising loss to the Raiders in Week 4 when they visit the Chiefs at 8:20 p.m. ET on Sunday night in Week 5. Is the total of 56 too high for these two teams to eclipse on Sunday Night Football?
475 Indianapolis Colts (+11) at 476 Kansas City Chiefs (-11); O/U 56
8:20 p.m. ET, Sunday, October 6, 2019
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Public Betting Trends
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the Chiefs are receiving 58% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks.
Indianapolis Colts Fantasy Spin
Marlon Mack (ankle) is questionable for the Colts' Week 5 matchup against the Chiefs. Mack is tentatively expected to suit up Sunday after getting in a full practice Friday. Mack was a victim to both an ankle injury and game script in Week 4. He ultimately played a season-low 36% snaps and had just 11 carries with zero targets. Coach Frank Reich confirmed Mack was never ruled out due to injury, noting that the offense instead rolled with Hines while they were in hurry-up mode. This was a reminder that Mack hasn't quite busted his status as a sneaky game-script dependent RB, though it'd be surprising if he doesn't get 15-20 touches on a near weekly basis with better injury luck inside the Colts' run-first offense. Still, Sunday night's matchup against the Chiefs at Arrowhead is far from a smash spot for the Colts' starting RB.
Kansas City Chiefs Fantasy Spin
Damien Williams (knee) is questionable for the Chiefs' Week 5 matchup against the Colts. Coach Andy Reid said Friday that the plan right now is that Williams will play Sunday. Still, it's surprising to see Williams even have an injury designation after practicing in full all week. He'll work as the offense's lead pass-down back if active, with LeSean McCoy staying plenty involved on early downs. Darrel Williams is expected to take a back seat if Damien and Shady are good to go. It's not the most clear-cut situation in the league, but there's plenty of upside to go around in the NFL's No. 1 scoring offense.
NFL Betting Trends
The under is 13-3 in the Colts’ last 16 games versus a team with a winning record.
The over is 6-0 in the Chiefs’ last six games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Even though Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs can score in a blink, the better play when it comes to the total at Arrowhead has also been the under. In the Chiefs’ last 75 home games, the under is 50-24-1. The under is also 4-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams and is 5-2 in the Colts’ last seven road games. Ultimately, I think the number is too high for this matchup. Indy remains banged-up on both sides of the ball but even if Kansas City scores its fair share, I don’t think the Colts will live up to their end of the bargain to cash the over.
NFL Week 5 Prediction: Colts/Chiefs UNDER 56