GB-MINN Free Pick
The moment Brett Favre has been waiting for is almost here as his Minnesota Vikings host his former team, the Green Bay Packers, tonight at 8:35PM ET.
Last week, Favre flashed some of the magic that made him an icon for so many years in Green Bay when he found Greg Lewis in the back of the end zone to give the Vikings an improbable last-second victory over the 49ers.
Favre threw for 301 yards with two touchdowns and an interception in the 27-24 win for Minnesota, while Adrian Peterson rushed for 85 yards on 19 carries. The Vikes failed to cover the spread as a 6.5-point favorite.
The Packers improved to 2-1 on the year with their 36-17 trouncing of the Rams in St. Louis, as Aaron Rodgers threw for 269 yards with two touchdowns and one rushing score. Donald Driver also caught four passes for 95 yards and a touchdown in the win, as Green Bay easily covered the 6.5-point spread as favorites.
Oddsmakers from online sports book BetOnline have made the Vikings 4.5-point favorites over the Packers tonight. The over/under total for this matchup has been established at 46.5.
The key for Brad Childress and the Vikings is to not get caught up in the Favre-Green Bay hype. Childress needs to put the ball in the hands of his best playmaker, which is Peterson.
Minnesota needs to keep the ball on the ground with AP and take shots with Favre and the passing game when Green Bay starts to put eight men in the box to slow the Vikes’ ground attack down. Once that happens, Favre can take shots vertically with Percy Harvin and Bernard Berrian.
For the Packers, the offensive line must do a better job of protecting Rodgers. If they give him time to throw, he might have success against a somewhat inconsistent Minnesota secondary. The problem is that he won’t benefit from a balanced attack, because the Vikings always take away the opposing team’s running game.
Chances are that this game will stay close for a while, but eventually Jared Allen and company will eat Rodgers alive. The Packers’ O-line just hasn’t done a good enough job in pass protection and that will be a problem tonight in a raucous Metrodome.
Vikings cover, as does the over 46.5 as both teams shoot the lights out.
Our NFL Week 4 FreePick for this matchup is: MINNESOTA VIKINGS –4.5 and OVER 46.5.
227 Green Bay Packers +4.5 Over 46.5 Moneyline: +185
228 Minnesota Vikings –4.5 Under 46.5 Moneyline: -225
Green Bay is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
Green Bay is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay
Minnesota is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay
Green Bay Packers
Atari Bigby, S, Out Week 4 (knee)
Brandon Jackson, RB, Out Week 4 (ankle)
Jeremy Thompson, LB, Out Week 4 (knee)
Cullen Jenkins, DE, Probable Week 4 (groin)
Greg Jennings, WR, Probable Week 4 (wrist)
Johnny Jolly, DE, Probable Week 4 (abdomen)
B.J. Rali, NT, Probable Week 4 (ankle)
Charles Woodson, CB, Probable Week 4 (foot)
Erin Henderson, LB, Doubtful Week 4 (calf)
Darius Reynaud, WR, Doubtful Week 4 (hamstring)
Steve Hutchinson, G, Questionable Week 4 (back)
Naufahu Tahi, FB, Questionable Week 4 (back)
Brett Favre, QB, Probable Week 4 (foot)
Cedric Griffin, CB, Probable Week 4 (hand)
E.J. Henderson, LB, Probable Week 4 (shoulder)
Jim Kleinsasser, TE, Probable Week 4 (hand)
Chris Kluwe, K, Probable Week 4 (illness)
Posted: 10/5/09 12:00PM ET