Patriots vs. Colts Spread Pick

New England Patriots vs. Indianapolis Colts, 10/4/18 Week 5 Predictions

The Indianapolis Colts are double-digit underdogs for Thursday night’s meeting with the New England Patriots in Foxborough. Is the spread too high in this meeting of AFC rivals or will the Pats roll?

Game Snapshot

301 Indianapolis Colts at 302 New England Patriots

8:20 p.m. ET, Thursday, October 4

Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts

Public Betting Trends

According to oddsmakers from online sports book, the Patriots are 10-point favorites to beat the Colts. The total, meanwhile, sits at 50.5 points. As of this writing, 53% of the public betting tickets are on the Colts to cover the point spread.

Indianapolis Colts

Marlon Mack (hamstring) is out for Week 5 against the Patriots. Mack has been practicing each of the past two weeks, but has been a somewhat surprising inactive both Weeks 4 and 5 now. Jordan Wilkins and Nyheim Hines will continue to dominate the backfield snaps with Hines being the far superior fantasy play after his two-touchdown game against Houston.

New England Patriots

ESPN's Adam Schefter reports Rob Gronkowski (ankle) is expected to play Thursday night against the Colts. Gronkowski was always thought to be dealing with a minor injury, so it is not surprising he will give it a go following a limited practice on Wednesday. There is a concern the Patriots take it easy on Gronk in a game they are favored by 10 points, but the Colts have been a good matchup for tight ends this season. With tight end as weak as ever, Gronkowski is worth the risk.

NFL Betting Trends


The Colts are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games against the Patriots.

New England

The home team is 4-1 against the number in the last five meetings between these two teams.


The Colts are just 2-2 against the spread this season but let’s take a deeper dive. They pulled off two impressive covers on the road already, one in an outright win over the Redskins in Washington and one in Philadelphia where they had an opportunity to beat the Eagles heading into the fourth quarter. In their two ATS losses, they held a fourth quarter lead against the Bengals in Week 1 and would have had a tie versus the Texans last Sunday had head coach Frank Reich not gone for it on fourth down in overtime to help set Houston up with a game-winning field. (Not debating the decision, just pointing out that the Colts played the Texans wire-to-wire last week.)

So, in their three losses, the Colts have fallen by a combined 7 points. And now they’re 10-point road dogs versus a Pats team coming off a short week? I’ll take double-digits with Andrew Luck under center any day.

NFL Week 5 Prediction: Indianapolis Colts +10

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