Patriots vs. Bills Week 4 Prediction
First place in the AFC East will be on the line today when the Bills host the Patriots at 1:00 p.m. ET. Laying seven points on the road, are the Pats the wise play for bettors or will the Bills put up a fight?
263 New England Patriots (-7) at 264 Buffalo Bills (+7); O/U 41.5
1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, September 29, 2019
New Era Field, Orchard Park, NY
Public Betting Trends
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the Patriots are receiving 57% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks.
New England Patriots Fantasy Spin
Julian Edelman (chest) is expected to play in the Patriots' Week 4 matchup against the Bills. Edelman is traveling with the Patriots, and NFL Network's Michael Giardi reports the "expectation" is Edelman plays. His matchup in the slot is easier than it is against the Bills' outside corners, but the Bills have allowed a league-low 185 passing yards since Week 1 of 2018. Edelman will be a volume-based WR2 if he goes through tomorrow's warm-ups with ease.
Buffalo Bills Fantasy Spin
Bills RB Devin Singletary (hamstring) is questionable for the team's Week 4 matchup against the Patriots. Singletary is a strong candidate for reduced snaps if he's ultimately able to suit up. Frank Gore is locked in as the offense's lead early-down back either way. The rookie's presence would be especially bad news for T.J. Yeldon, who could be delegated back to the bench. None of the RBs in this crowded offense are great fantasy options this week against the Patriots' league-best defense.
NFL Betting Trends
The Patriots are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games versus the Bills and are 16-5-1 against the number in their last 22 trips to Buffalo.
The home team is 7-20-1 at the betting window in the last 28 meetings between these two teams while the underdog is 1-4 against the spread in the last five meetings.
There’s no question the “value” is on the home dog that not only is unbeaten, but is also playing well defensively to start the season. That said, how are the Bills going to score? The Patriots haven’t allowed a defensive touchdown in the first three weeks and while they’ve beaten up on opponents (Steelers, Dolphins and Jets) with a combined 0-9 record to start the year, it’s not as if the Bills have played anyone yet either (Jets, Giants and Bengals). It’s not as if the Jets and Bengals have stout defenses yet Buffalo mustered just 17 points versus New York and 21 versus Cincinnati. Even if the Bills keep Tom Brady and Co. in check (a big “if”), I don’t see how Josh Allen moves the ball consistently enough to keep the Bills within a touchdown. Buffalo might be a legitimate Wild Card contender in the AFC this year, but the Bills aren’t quite ready for prime time in my eyes.
NFL Week 4 Prediction: New England Patriots -7