Panthers vs. Texans Week 4 Prediction
Kyle Allen led the Panthers to victory last Sunday in Arizona but he and Carolina will once again be an underdog when the team visits the Texans at 1:00 p.m. ET. Has Allen and Co. become overvalued from a betting standpoint?
251 Carolina Panthers (+4) at 252 Houston Texans (-4); O/U 47.5
1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, September 29, 2019
NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas
Public Betting Trends
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the Texans are receiving 67% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks.
Carolina Panthers Fantasy Spin
Cam Newton (foot) confirmed he's dealing with a Lisfranc injury. Newton called his Lisfranc "mild" and refused to rule himself out for next week. He doesn't plan to play at less than 100 percent, so a 4-8 week timetable remains the most realistic target. Newton should be sidelined until at least after the Panthers' Week 7 bye. Kyle Allen will continue to start until Newton returns.
Houston Texans Fantasy Spin
Deshaun Watson completed 25-of-34 passes for 351 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions in the Texans' 27-20, Week 3 win over the Chargers. Watson was more-or-less brilliant whenever he was given even a decent amount of time to throw. Even when he wasn’t, Watson usually proved to be too elusive for the Chargers’ pass rush to bring down. The Texans’ franchise QB managed to complete chunk plays to each of Kenny Stills (38 yards), DeAndre Hopkins (34), Will Fuller (30) and Jordan Akins (53). The latter touchdown was particularly absurd. Continue to fire up Watson as a high-end QB1 for next week’s cozy home matchup against the Panthers
NFL Betting Trends
The Panthers are 3-8 against the spread in their last 11 games and have dropped seven of their last nine games against the number when coming off a win.
The Texans are a remarkable 14-3 against the number in their last 17 games when playing in the fourth week of the season.
Christian McCaffrey will be a headache for the Texans like he is for most opponents on Sundays. That said, I don’t think McCaffrey will be enough for the Panthers to overcome their potential issues against Watson and the Texans’ passing game. Carolina ranks 27th in Football Outsiders’ pass-defense DVOA, which is problematic considering DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, Kenny Stills and Keke Coutee will lineup for Houston this afternoon. While the Texans don’t posses the same talent as they have on defense in recent years, Allen will find it more difficult moving the ball versus Houston than he did against Arizona’s porous defense a week ago. I think the number here is too small.
NFL Week 4 Prediction: Houston Texans -4