Chargers vs. Dolphins Week 4 Prediction
The tanking Dolphins are once again laying a big number, this time against the struggling Chargers as a 14.5-point home underdog. Will Miami cover a point spread for the first time this season or will the Bolts take out some frustrations today in a rout?
257 Los Angeles Chargers (-14.5) at 258 Miami Dolphins (+14.5); O/U 44.5
1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, September 29, 2019
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Public Betting Trends
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the Chargers are receiving 54% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks.
Los Angeles Chargers Fantasy Spin
Melvin Gordon will be on a "limited" snap count for Week 4's game against the Dolphins. USA Today's Mike Jones reports Gordon will be available, but the Chargers plan on keeping him "limited" and ESPN's Eric Williams projects Gordon to have a similar workload to what Justin Jackson (calf) had in the first three weeks of the season. Austin Ekeler should see the most snaps and touches this week with Gordon ending his holdout mid-week, though nothing can be fully taken for granted. The Chargers are 14-point favorites against the Dolphins, who just gave up big games to Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard last week.
Miami Dolphins Fantasy Spin
Albert Wilson (calf) expects to return for Sunday's game against the Chargers. Wilson, who hasn't played since Week 1, got in limited practices on Wednesday and Thursday. "I feel really good," he said Thursday. "I feel like I’m moving smooth and fast, ready to get out there." DeVante Parker and Preston Williams have been racking up down-field targets in Wilson's absence, but Josh Rosen lacked a short-to-intermediate threat in Week 3. Wilson could still end up carving out low-end WR4 appeal in PPR leagues, but both his floor and ceiling are vanishingly low in the Dolphins' tanked offense.
NFL Betting Trends
The Chargers are 0-4 against the spread in their last four games in South Beach and are 1-4 against the number in their last five games versus the Dolphins overall.
The home team has covered the spread in six of the previous eight meetings between these two squads.
I don’t love the idea of backing a team that is clearly trying to lose (or at least the front office of that team is clearly trying to lose), but the Dolphins didn’t play poorly in the first half last week versus the Cowboys. They might lose 16 straight games this season but they’re going to mix in a cover or two along the way. The Chargers are extremely banged up (hey, what’s new?), with six players missing practice on Wednesday and Thursday. Some of those players include Mike Williams (back), Travis Benjamin (hip), Virgil Green (groin) and Casey Hayward (back). The Chargers will likely keep it on the ground with Gordon and Co., especially with the Dolphins ranking 31st with an 18.4% run defense DVOA per Football Outsiders. If they do largely keep the ball on the ground, that will chew clock and potentially keep the scoring in check. While Miami could wind up being one of the worst teams in the modern NFL, the Chargers aren’t exactly firing on all cylinders at the moment. I’m not laying 14.5 points with a road team that is scuffling, regardless of the opponent.
NFL Week 4 Prediction: Miami Dolphins +14.5