Bills vs. Falcons Total Pick

NFL Week 4 Picks: Total set too high in Bills vs. Falcons? 9/29/17

Is the total set too high in Sunday's matchup between the Bills and Falcons at 1:00PM ET?

Game Info

Who: Bills (2-1) at Falcons (3-0)

When: 1:00PM ET, Sunday, October 1

Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA

The Odds

According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, the Falcons are 8-point home favorites versus the Bills, who opened as 9-point road underdogs. As for the total, the number hit the board at 49 but was bet down to 48.5.

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Buffalo Bills Betting Trends

The Bills are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games coming off an ATS win and are 8-2 against the number in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. That said, they're just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games versus an opponent with a winning record and are 2-6 at the betting window in their last eight games in Week 4.

Atlanta Falcons Betting Trends

The Falcons are 3-0-1 against the spread in their last four games versus the Bills, have covered in four of their last five games versus a team with a winning record, and are 7-3 at the betting window in their last 10 games overall. That said, they have failed to cover in six of their last eight games when playing in Week 4.

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OUR PREDICTION: The over has cashed in four of the last five meetings between these two teams. The over is also 11-4 in the Bills' last 15 games overall, is 20-8 in their last 28 games played in October, and is 7-1 in their last eight games when facing an opponent with a winning record. On the other side, the over is 18-7-1 in the Falcons' last 26 games overall, is a perfect 12-0 in their last 12 home games, and is 13-2-1 in their last 16 games coming off a win.

 

NFL WEEK 4 PICK: BILLS/FALCONS OVER 48.5

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