SF-MIN Free Pick
The only game on the Week 3 schedule that features 2-0 team takes place at the Metrodome this Sunday when the Minnesota Vikings host the San Francisco 49ers.
The 49ers are off to a surprising 2-0 start after defeating the Seahawks 23-10 last week and covering the spread as 1-point favorites. Frank Gore rushed for a whopping 207 yards and two touchdowns in the win, while Shaun Hill threw for 144 yards.
The Vikings also jumped out to 2-0 this year thanks to a 27-13 victory over the Lions at Ford Field. Minnesota covered the spread as 10-point favorites despite falling behind 10-0 in the first half. Adrian Peterson rushed for 92 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries, while quarterback Brett Favre threw for 155 yards and two touchdowns.
Oddsmakers from online sports book SPORTSBETTING.com have made the Vikings 7-point favorites over the 49ers in this matchup. The over/under total has been set at 40.5.
Not to take anything away from Mike Singletary’s 49ers, but even though they’re 2-0 they still haven’t developed a passing game, which could hurt them in their matchup with the Vikings. Gore shredded the Seattle defense last week, but won’t have the same success this Sunday against Kevin Williams and Pat Williams, who eat running backs for breakfast, lunch and dinner.
What will happen when Hill has to make plays in the passing game? He showed in Arizona that he could make plays down the stretch, but can San Fran come from behind if they get down by two scores?
That said, Minnesota will also be tested. San Fran has played great defensively over the first two games and will try to make Favre beat them through the air by taking away Peterson. The 49ers’ have a quality secondary and if the Vikes can’t get AP going, Favre might make mistakes when the game is finally on his shoulders.
We happen to think that this will be the week the Niners come back down to earth. It won’t be a blowout, but we see the Vikings grinding out a win and covering with a score in the fourth quarter. The total has gone under in five of San Francisco’s last six games when playing on the road against Minnesota, so we recommend taking the under.
Our NFL Week 3 Free Pick for this game is: MINNESOTA VIKINGS –7 and UNDER 40.5.
415 San Francisco 49ers +7 Over 40.5 Moneyline: +245
416 Minnesota Vikings –7 Under 40.5 Moneyline: -290
San Francisco is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Minnesota
San Francisco is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Minnesota is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
San Francisco 49ers
Ahmad Brooks, LB, Out Week 2 (knee)
Brandon Jones, WR, Doubtful Week 2 (shoulder)
David Baas, G, Probable Week 2 (biceps)
Aubrayo Franklin, DT, Probable Week 2 (shin)
Marcus Hudson, CB, Probable Week 2 (knee)
Chilo Rachal, G, Probable Week 2 (neck)
Justin Smith, DE, Probable Week 2 (elbow)
Isaac Sopoaga, DE, Probable Week 2 (shoulder)
Erin Henderson, LB, Out Week 2 (calf)
Heath Farwell, LB, Questionable Week 2 (hamstring)
Anthony Herrera, G, Probable Week 2 (back)
Jim Kleinsasser, TE, Probable Week 2 (hand)
Posted: 9/27/09 8:35AM ET