KC-BAL Free Pick
Baltimore, MD - Fresh off their appearance in the AFC Championship Game, the Baltimore Ravens open the 2009 NFL season by hosting the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday at 1:00PM ET.
After making several big changes this offseason, including replacing their GM, head coach and quarterback, the Chiefs were excited about the new season. But that excitement was tempered a bit when Matt Cassel (who was acquired from the Patriots) suffered an injury in preseason and will miss Sunday’s game.
Tyler Thigpen will now start under center for Kansas City at Baltimore in Week 1, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing when you consider that he did get starting experience last year when Brodie Croyle got hurt in Week 1.
Oddsmakers from online sports book SBGGLOBAL.com have made the Ravens 13-point home favorites over the Chiefs. The over/under total for this game has been established at 36.
The Ravens have the far superior team, but the Chiefs are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games on the road and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games when playing Baltimore.
While it’s tempting to take the home Ravens going against a backup quarterback, Thigpen kept the Chiefs in games last year with his mobility and Kansas City’s defense is expected to be improved after switching to the 3-4. The Ravens like to keep the ball on the ground and play good defense, so we predict a 10-point win for them and we like the UNDER in this matchup.
Our NFL Week 1 Free Picks for this matchup are: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS +13 and UNDER 36.
Kansas City Chiefs +13 Over 36
Baltimore Ravens –13 Under 36
Kansas City is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Kansas City is 2-23 SU in its last 25 games
Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Kansas City Chiefs
Kolby Smith, RB, P-U-P List
Matt Cassel, QB, Questionable (Knee)
Terrance Copper, WR, Questionable (Hamstring)
Brandon Flowers, CB, Questionable (Shoulder)
Samari Rolle, CB, P-U-P List
L.J. Smith, TE, Doubtful (Hamstring)
Dannell Ellerbe, LB, Questionable (Knee)
Brendon Ayanbadejo, LB, Probable, (Foot)
Haloti Ngata, DT, Probable (Knee)
Posted: 9/13/09 7:15AM ET