Packers vs. Saints Week 1 Prediction
The spread in Sunday’s Week 1 matchup between the Packers and Saints has moved from New Orleans +2.5 to Green Bay -3.5. Will the Packers cover the spread or is there a better bet on the board this afternoon in Jacksonville?
483 Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at 484 New Orleans Saints (+3.5); o/u 49.5
4:25 p.m. ET, Sunday, September 12, 2021
NFL Week 1 Regular Season
Green Bay Packers DFS Spin
When asked if there was a chance he would receive a contraction extension prior to Week 1, Packers WR Davante Adams responded "no chance." Adams, entering the final year of his four-year, $58 million contract with Green Bay, has stated publicly that he won't take a discount and has "earned the right to be paid the highest in the league." That may be the case, but it's also likely caused the two sides to hit a roadblock in their long-term discussions since, to this point, the organization reportedly has "not acknowledged Adams as the highest paid" receiver. With no guarantee Aaron Rodgers returns in 2022, Adams shouldn't be considered a locked-in piece of Green Bay's roster beyond this year unless the powers that be budge on those numbers.
New Orleans Saints DFS Spin
ESPN's Adam Schefter reports QB Jameis Winston will start Week 1 against the Packers. Winston shined Monday night against Jacksonville while Taysom Hill struggled mightily, effectively ending a competition Winston was favored to win from the start. Winston taking the Saints' starting gig will allow Hill to "fill his valuable gadget/do-everything role," per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. That, of course, could be an issue for Winston's touchdown upside if head coach Sean Payton deploys Hill near the goal line. Winston, 27, becomes one of the best late-round QB selections in superflex formats. His presence under center is a boon for every pass catcher in the New Orleans offense. He'll bring far more aggressive downfield passing than we saw with Drew Brees at the helm of Payton's offense. The Saints last year threw 29 passes that traveled 20-plus yards beyond the line of scrimmage -- fewer than any team since the 2014 season. Winston can earn up to $7 million this season in incentives, mostly based on statistical markers.
Packers vs. Saints Betting Prediction
The over is 8-1 in the last nine meetings between these two teams and is 4-0 in the Packer’s last four games overall. The over is 4-0 in the Packers’ last four games as a favorite, is 8-2 in their last 10 games played in Week 1 and is 35-16 in their last 51 games in September. On the other side, the over is 7-0 in the Saints’ last seven games in Week 1 and is 4-1 in their last five games in September.
NFL WEEK 1 BETTING PREDICTION: PACKERS/SAINTS OVER 49.5