Browns vs. Chiefs Week 1 Prediction
The defending AFC champion Chiefs will open their season against a team they beat in the playoffs last year – the Browns – at 4:25 p.m. ET. Will the Chiefs cover as a 5.5-point home favorite or is there a better play on the board?
471 Cleveland Browns (+5.5) at 472 Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5); o/u 54.5
4:25 p.m. ET, Sunday, September 12, 2021
NFL Week 1 Regular Season
Cleveland Browns DFS Spin
Baker Mayfield completed 6-of-10 passes for 113 yards and a touchdown in the Browns' third preseason game against the Falcons. The Browns tilted pass-heavy in Mayfield's two drives, opting for five rush attempts versus 11 passing plays. While it's difficult to take much away from a pair of preseason drives, this could point toward Kevin Stefanski letting Mayfield throw a bit more in his fourth season as a pro. If the reports of the Browns loosening the reigns on their franchise quarterback are true, Mayfield could be in for a breakout campaign. He finished 13th in touchdown rate and adjusted yards per attempt last year but lacked the volume to make a major fantasy impact. If he takes another step forward as a thrower and Cleveland inches toward league-average in passing volume, Mayfield will easily pay off his low-end QB2 ADP.
Kansas City Chiefs DFS Spin
Patrick Mahomes completed 8-of-9 passes for 117 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions in the Chiefs' preseason finale against the Vikings. To the surprise of absolutely nobody, Mahomes dazzled in limited run during the preseason. Chiefs coach Andy Reid hinted that the offensive starters could get extended playing time against Minnesota, but Mahomes – along with Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and other difference-makers – were yanked after two drives on Friday night. The best quarterback in football doesn't need much to get ready for the season. His next snap will come in Week 1 against the Browns.
Browns vs. Chiefs Betting Prediction
The Browns are 4-0 against the spread in their last four meetings at Arrowhead Stadium and are 4-1 against the number in their last five games versus the Chiefs. The underdog is also 6-2 at the betting window in the last eight meetings between these two teams, while the road side is 4-0 against the spread in the last four meetings. The Chiefs, meanwhile, are 2-9 against the spread in their last 11 games overall, are 1-5 against the number in their last six home games and are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.
NFL WEEK 1 BETTING PREDICTION: CLEVELAND BROWNS +5.5