Patriots vs. Bills Free Pick

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BUFFALO, NY (The Spread) – E.J. Manuel will make his debut for the Bills today against the Patriots at 1:00PM ET. Will Buffalo cover as a double-digit home underdog?

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NFL ODDS: According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, the Patriots are 10-point home favorites versus the Bills, while the over/under total is currently sitting at 51 points.

NFL LINEMOVEMENT: The Patriots opened as a 7.5-point favorite but the spread has jumped as high as 11 at some online sports books and 9, 9.5 or 10 at other places. As for the total, it opened at 53 but has been bet down to 51 at most online and Vegas sports books.

NFL PUBLIC BETTING: Of the bets that have been placed on this game, 69% currently favor New England. This information is subject to change, however, so make sure to click on the link for the latest public betting figures.

NFL FREE PICK: Take the over. According to latest NFL trends, the over is 4-0 in the last four meetings between these two teams and 7-1 in the Bills’ last eight games in September. The over is also 4-1 in Buffalo’s last five games in Week 1 and 7-3 in its last 10 home games. On the other side, the over is 8-2 in the Patriots’ last 10 games in September, 9-3 in their last 12 road games, and 39-19-1 in their last 59 games versus the AFC. Safety Jarius Byrd is listed as doubtful and cornerback Stephon Gilmore is out after having wrist surgery, so the Bills will be without their best two defensive backs today versus Tom Brady and that passing game. Even without Rob Gronkowski (injured) and Wes Welker (Denver/FA), New England should light up a bad Buffalo defense. And if Manuel and/or C.J. Spiller can get the Bills into the end zone a couple of times, the combined total should go over the total.

2013 NFL FREE PICK: PATRIOTS/BILLS OVER 51

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