Chiefs at Jaguars Over/Under Prediction
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs open their 2019 season on the road this Sunday, visiting the Jaguars at 1:00 p.m. ET. With one of the highest totals of Week 1, will these two teams combine for enough points to get over the number?
463 Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at 464 Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5); O/U 51.5
1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, September 8, 2019
TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL
Public Betting Trends
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the Chiefs are receiving 73% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks.
Kansas City Chiefs Fantasy Spin
Brooke Pryor of the Kansas City Star expects LeSean McCoy "to take a large percentage" of the team's backfield reps. Pryor still envisions Damien Williams as the nominal starter, though with McCoy on board, Kansas City now embodies all the familiar traits of an Andy Reid timeshare. There's still opportunity for Williams to carve out a meaningful fantasy role as a proven pass-catcher on arguably the league's best offense, though the threat of ceding goal-line work to Shady certainly throws a wrench in his quest for RB2 status. McCoy's arrival also complicates Darwin Thompson's path to carries in what has become a crowded Chiefs backfield.
Jacksonville Jaguars Fantasy Spin
Jaguars DC Todd Wash said Jalen Ramsey will shadow Tyreek Hill in the Week 1 matchup with the Chiefs. Giddy up. This will be one of the highlight matchups of opening weekend. Ramsey is one of the best -- if not the best -- cover corners in the league but did have a bit of a down year for his standards last season as the Jaguars' season crumbled beneath them. Ramsey being glued to Hill will likely mean Sammy Watkins will deal with A.J. Bouye on the other side. That could open things up for Travis Kelce inside, though Patrick Mahomes won't be afraid to test Ramsey and Bouye.
NFL Betting Trends
The over is 5-0 in the Chiefs’ last five road games and is 6-2 in their last eight games overall.
The under is 5-0 in the Jaguars’ last five home games and has cashed in four of their last five games overall.
The Chiefs will once again have the NFL’s most talented offense, led by one of the best schemers in the game in head coach Andy Reid. That said, while the KC defense should improve under new DC Steve Spagnuolo, it’s unlikely that the improvements will be significant. This is still a flawed unit despite overhauling most of the lineup. Meanwhile, the Jaguars’ defense should be better than it was in 2018 but it won’t come close to the level of play it achieved in 2017. They added a stud edge rusher in Josh Allen in the draft and Yannick Ngakoue, Myles Jack, Calais Campbell and Ramsey all return, but Telvin Smith’s sabbatical hurts. Reid and Mahomes made a habit of embarrassing opponents a year ago and we’ll see more of the same this season, including on Sunday. And while Nick Foles might not play like a Super Bowl MVP away from Philly, he should at least improve the Jaguars passing game after the team finally ended the Blake Bortles era during the offseason.
NFL Week 1 Prediction: Chiefs/Jaguars OVER 51.5