Dolphins Season Win Total Prediction
With a new head coach and several fresh faces, will the Miami Dolphins win over or under 7 games in 2016?
According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, the Dolphins' season win total has been set at 7, with the over carrying odds of -130 and the under carrying odds of 'even.' Thus, for every $130.00 bettors wager on the Dolphins to go over their season win total, they'd win $100.00 if Miami wins 8-plus games. If bettors wager on the Dolphins to fall under that total, they would be paid $100.00 for every $100.00 they wagered if Miami wins six games or fewer.
A Look Back
After the team lost three of their first four games, head coach Joe Philbin was fired on October 5 and replaced by interim Dan Campbell. The Dolphins then finished the season with a 5-7 record under Campbell, who was replaced on a full-time basis by new head coach Adam Gase. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill threw for 4,208 yards with 24 touchdowns, while Lamar Miller was the leading rusher with 872 yards and eight scores and Jarvis Landry caught 110 passes for 1,157 yards with four TDs.
A Look Ahead
Gase was hired to be the front man in Miami after serving one season as the Bears' offensive coordinator in Chicago. Gone are Miller (Texans), Brent Grimes (Bucs), Rishard Matthews (Titans), Derrick Shelby (Falcons), Olivier Vernon (Giants), and Kelvin Sheppard (Giants). But the team acquired linebacker Kiko Alonso and corner Byron Maxwell from the Eagles in exchange for swapping first-round picks (8 and 13). Miami also signed defensive end Mario Williams and drafted Ole Miss offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil in the first round. They recently signed Arian Foster to team with second-year back Jay Ajayi.
2016 Season Win Total Prediction
It's likely the Dolphins will max out at 7 wins so oddsmakers have the number set perfectly. The biggest question is how quickly the players adapt to Gase, who is a brilliant young offensive mind but it will take some time for the players to excel in his system (and conversely, for him to learn what he can and cannot ask his new players to do). After the unit allowed 45 sacks last season, the other question is if the offensive line will show significant improvement.
So what's the play? Take the value, which is in the under at 'even' odds. Why lay -130 on the over when the number is set correctly and there's so much that has to come together for the Dolphins to win another two games than they did a year ago? Gase was the best offseason "acquisition" that the team made. But it's going to take time before everything comes together for him in Miami. With Seattle, New England (twice), Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Arizona on the schedule, look for the Dolphins to finish with either six or seven wins in 2016.
2016 MIAMI DOLPHINS SEASON WIN TOTAL: UNDER 7 (EVEN)