First NFL Coach to be Fired Odds
Which coach in the NFL will be the first one fired or to leave his position in the upcoming 2019 season? The odds are out and the two coaches at the top of the least are both in the same division.
The Top 2
Jay Gruden, Redskins (3/1)
According to oddsmakers from online sportsbook Sportsbook.com, Gruden is a 3/1 favorite to be the first head coach either fired or to leave his position in 2019. Gruden doesn’t have much to work with in Washington but that might not matter to owner Dan Snyder or the rest of the brass in D.C. Gruden will enter the upcoming season with a 35-44-1 record with the Redskins and owns just two winning season (one playoff appearance) in his five years in Washington. With a shaky quarterback situation and a lack of top-end talent, the Redskins don’t figure to surprise this season.
Pat Shurmur, Giants (7/1)
As previously mentioned, the top two coaches both come from the same division, which happens to be the NFC East. Much like Gruden in Washington, Shurmur doesn’t have much to work with in New York. His best player (Odell Beckham Jr.) was traded to Cleveland in the offseason and Shurmur will be forced to try and win with an aging Eli Manning at quarterback, while also simultaneously developing rookie Daniel Jones. After a 5-11 first season with the Giants, Shurmur and Co. might actually take a step backwards this year.
First Coach to be Fired or Leave Odds:
Matt Patricia, Lions (10/1)
Bill O’Brien, Texans (12/1)
Dan Quinn, Falcons (12/1)
No Coach Fired (12/1)
Doug Marrone, Jaguars (16/1)
Mike Zimmer, Vikings (16/1)
Adam Gase, Jets (20/1)
Brian Flores, Dolphins (20/1)
Jason Garrett, Cowboys (20/1)
Ron Rivera, Panthers (20/1)
Kliff Kingsbury, Cardinals (25/1)
Mike Tomlin, Steelers (25/1)
Where is the value in these odds?
The three coaches at the top offer bettors the best value: Patricia at 10/1 and O’Brien and Quinn at 12/1, respectively. This will be Patricia’s only second season in Detroit but he has seemingly rubbed enough people the wrong way with his Bill Belichick-like style to get himself ousted in Motown. With the Bears, Packers and Vikings offering better rosters in the NFC North, it wouldn’t be a total shock if the Lions parted ways with Patricia if things went south in a hurry.
O’Brien, meanwhile, has been in Houston for five seasons and while he does have a winning record at 42-38, plus three playoff appearances, the expectations have never been higher thanks to young quarterback DeShaun Watson. Another first-round playoff exit and the Texans might believe they can find a head coach with a better offensive system to get the most out of Watson.
Finally, Quinn is probably safe in Atlanta. First and foremost, the Falcons’ roster is too good for the team not to be competitive. But that’s also the challenge for Quinn. If he can’t win with Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley and a slew of underrated defenders like Grady Jarrett, Deion Jones and Keanu Neal, then perhaps ownership will be looking to move on from both Quinn and GM Thomas Dimitroff in the offseason. Injuries were mostly to blame for the Falcons 7-9 finish a year ago but again, the roster is too good for Atlanta to take another step backwards in 2019. Plus, Quinn fired his former defensive coordinator and will now run the defense, while he made a change at OC as well, replacing Steve Sarkisian with Dirk Koetter. Quinn is all in for 2019 so if things go off the rails, Arthur Blank might ultimately decide that Quinn isn't the guy.