Texans' Super Bowl Odds Remain Same?

Texans Acquire David Johnson, 3/17/20 Did Houston’s Super Bowl Odds Dip?

The Texans sent shockwaves throughout the NFL world on Monday by acquiring running back David Johnson from the Cardinals. The price was steep, as No. 1 wideout DeAndre Hopkins was a part of the package that went to Arizona in the deal.

Why did the Texans trade Hopkins?

It’s anyone’s guess what Bill O’Brien was thinking when he made this trade. The Texans did acquire a 2020 second-round pick and a 2021 fourth-round selection as well as Johnson, but parting with Hopkins makes no sense. He’s coming off a year in which he caught 104 passes for 1,165 yards and seven touchdowns. Hopkins and Deshaun Watson formed one of the best 1-2 combinations in the league. Granted, the Texans still have Will Fuller, Kenny Stills and Keke Coutee, so it’s not as if they’re depleted now at receiver. But Fuller is often hurt and none of the three are Hopkins.

Plus, Johnson is a declining 28-year-old running back in a league where most teams devalue the position. Damien Williams, a former Dolphins castoff, could have easily won Super Bowl MVP for the Chiefs this past season. And Raheem Mostert, who helped the 49ers reach the Super Bowl, was playing for his seventh team. You just don’t need to pay a premium for running backs and yet, O’Brien and the Texans paid a steep price to acquire Johnson from Arizona. It’s just baffling.

Yeah, but were Houston’s Super Bowl odds impacted?

Believe it or not, no. As of this writing, we have yet to update our NFL Futures Odds page but even if we did, it would still show that the Texans are 40/1 to win the Super Bowl next year. According to oddsmakers from online sports book Sportsbook.com, that’s the exact odds that the Texans currently have, so trading Hopkins had no immediate impact on their chances to win the Super Bowl (at least according to Sportsbook.com). A lot of that has to do with Watson and the impact of the quarterback position over the receiver position.

That said, the Cardinals’ Super Bowl odds certainly improved. Before the Johnson-Hopkins swap, Arizona was 100/1 to win the 2021 Super Bowl. Those odds remained unchanged until Monday, when the Cardinals landed one of the premier wideouts in the league in Hopkins. After the deal, Arizona’s odds went from 100/1 to 60/1. While they’re still long-shots to win, it goes to show you what having a young QB like Kyler Murray, as well as a dynamic weapon in Hopkins can do for a team’s odds.

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