Chiefs vs. 49ers SB54 Total Prediction
Will Super Bowl 54 between the Chiefs and 49ers tonight in Miami result in a shootout or is there more value in taking the under? The current direction of the total would suggest wiseguys are on the under but is that the best play?
101 San Francisco 49ers (+1.5) at 102 Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5); o/u 54
6:30 p.m. ET, Sunday, February 2, 2020
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Public Betting Trends
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the Chiefs are receiving 57% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks.
San Francisco 49ers Fantasy Spin
Jimmy Garoppolo completed 6-of-8 passes for 77 yards in the 49ers' 37-20, NFC Championship Game victory over the Packers. A stat line that speaks to the problems with quarterback win-loss records. Garoppolo's eight attempts were the fewest for a starting quarterback in conference championship game history. Garoppolo did nothing so there is nothing to discuss. He is 17-of-27 for 208 yards through two postseason games. We would assume he will be needed for more vs. the high-flying Chiefs, but the 49ers' run game has proven capable of dominating any opponent.
Kansas City Chiefs Fantasy Spin
Patrick Mahomes completed 23-of-35 passes for 294 yards and three touchdowns, adding eight scrambles for 53 yards and a rushing score in Kansas City's Conference Championship victory over the Titans. Trailing 17-7 through the first quarter, Kansas City and Mahomes miraculously rattled off three consecutive scores drives to take a commanding 21-17 lead into the half. The team would inevitably score 28 unanswered points, including a 27-yard touchdown scramble where Mahomes seemingly tightroped the left sideline while averting spying LB Rashaan Evans and dashing ahead to gift the Chiefs their first-half lead. In all, Mahomes and the Chiefs' O finished the afternoon with scoring drives of 88, 86, 74, 73, and 63 yards, seeing both Tyreek Hill (5/67/2) and Sammy Watkins (7/114/1) get loose over the top of Tennessee's secondary. If there's a way to stop the Chiefs' aerial attack, both the Texans and Titans didn't unveil the blueprint. Super Bowl 54 will be the city of Kansas City's first title appearance in the last 50 years.
NFL Betting Trends
The over is 4-1-1 in the 49ers’ last six games overall but the under is 4-1 in their last five playoff games.
The over is 7-2 in the Chiefs’ last nine games when facing an opponent with a winning record but the over is 10-4 in their last 14 games after they accumulated more than 350 total yards in their previous contest.
Just because Garoppolo only attempted eight passes versus the Packers in the NFC Championship Game and didn’t tear up the stat sheet versus the Vikings in the Divisional round doesn’t mean he’s incapable of putting together a big game against the Chiefs. To assume that he’ll walk out on the field tonight in Miami and fall on his face ignores what he was able to do this season in Kyle Shanahan’s offense.
Speaking of Shanahan, he and Andy Reid are two of the best offensive play-callers in the NFL. When Shanahan squared off versus Sean Payton of the Saints in Week 14 (Payton is among the very best play-callers in the league as well), the two teams got into the 40s in a back-and-forth slugfest.
Will both teams crack 40 points respectively tonight in Super Bowl 54? It’s unlikely, but again, I’m not buying that Garoppolo is a handcuff because he wasn’t needed versus the Vikings and Packers. Shanahan would have received heavy criticism for getting away from Raheem Mostert and the running game just so he could put the ball in the air. Plus, even though the 49ers had a run-heavy approach against the Packers, they still scored 37 points as the over cashed easily.
As for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, we know they’ll score. In fact, it’s almost a certainty that they’ll score at least 24 points, regardless of how good the 49ers have been defensively this season. That’s just what they do. The question in regards to the total then becomes: Can the Niners score in the high 20s? If you believe the answer is “yes,” and I do, then take the over. That doesn’t mean the Chiefs will also get into the high-20s, but if we’re almost gifted 24 points with Kansas City off the jump, then I’ll take my chances that these two teams can set off enough fireworks tonight at Hard Rock Stadium to cash the over.
SUPER BOWL 54 PREDICTION: CHIEFS/49ERS OVER 54