Travis Kelce SB54 Prop Predictions
How many receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns will Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce produce tonight in Super Bowl 54 versus the 49ers? Will have a big impact or will San Francisco’s excellent defense curb his receiving production?
101 San Francisco 49ers (+1.5) at 102 Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5); o/u 54
6:30 p.m. ET, Sunday, February 2, 2020
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Public Betting Trends
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the Chiefs are receiving 57% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks.
Travis Kelce Super Bowl 54 Prop Bets
Receiving Yards: 81.5
Yards of First Reception: 10.5
Yards of Longest Reception: 23.5
Touchdown: Yes (-125); No (+105)
Kelce caught three-of-four targets for 30 yards in the Chiefs’ AFC Championship win over the Titans. He had a one-on-one matchup with safety Kevin Byard and the Titans defender did a respectable job keeping Kelce in check. The tight end had a much bigger impact versus the Texans in the Divisional round, catching 10 passes for 134 yards and three touchdowns on 12 targets.
In the regular season, Kelce averaged 6.06 receptions, 76.81 receiving yards, 0.31 touchdowns, 8.50 targets and 12.67 yards per receptions on a per-game basis. Thus, the above props are in line with Kelce’s production from the regular season. Over a much shorter sample size of two postseason games, it’s understandable that Kelce’s production was more sporadic (i.e. one big game and one quieter).
So what will Kelce do in the Super Bowl? The 49ers ranked 12th defensively against fantasy tight ends this season, which is solid. They held Vikings tight end Kyle Rudolph to two catches for four yards on three targets in the Divisional round and Jimmy Graham to four-of-five targets for 59 yards in the NFC Championship Game.
That said, the Niners are also prone to blow ups defensively versus opposing tight ends. In a Week 16 home game versus the Rams, L.A. tight end Tyler Higbee had nine receptions for 104 yards as Sean McVay consistently rolled quarterback Jared Goff out of the pocket. Higbee also produced three receptions and 25 yards on three targets versus the 49ers in the first meeting between the division rivals, which might not look like big production, but was pretty impressive considering Goff only threw for 78 yards in that game.
Here's the bottom line for me: Do I see Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes eventually figuring out how to move the ball against Robert Saleh’s defense? Do I see this being a high-scoring game or one that will fall under the total? And will Kelce be a big factor in the Chiefs’ offensive game plan?
The answer to all of those questions for me is yes, with “high-scoring” being my answer for the one centered on the total. Thus, I’m banking on a high-production day out of Kelce as this game goes back-and-forth.
Travis Kelce Super Bowl 54 Prop Predictions: OVER 6.5 Receptions (-130) & Over 81.5 Receiving Yards (-110)