Deebo Samuel SB54 Prop Predictions
The entire 49ers’ passing attack was grounded in the NFC Championship Game as Raheem Mostert terrorized the Packers run defense, but will Deebo Samuel and Co. have a bigger game tonight against the Chiefs in Super Bowl 54?
101 San Francisco 49ers (+1.5) at 102 Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5); o/u 54
6:30 p.m. ET, Sunday, February 2, 2020
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Public Betting Trends
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the Chiefs are receiving 57% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks.
Deebo Samuel Super Bowl 54 Prop Bets
Receiving Yards: 51.5
Yards of First Reception: 10.5
Yards of Longest Reception: 21.5
Rushing Attempts: 0.5
Rushing Yards: 10.5
Touchdown: Yes (+145); No (-165)
Samuel caught 2-of-3 targets for 46 yards in the 49ers’ NFC Championship Game victory over the Packers while also adding two rushes for an additional 43 yards. He was the only Niners pass catcher to clear 20 yards receiving on a night in which quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo attempted just eight passes. Samuel also caught 3-of-6 targets for 42 yards in the Niners’ Divisional round win over the Vikings.
I won’t bury the lead: I’m going with the over on most of Samuel’s Super Bowl props. I write that with the understanding that oddsmakers usually inflate the stat projections for popular players in the Super Bowl but when I look at Samuels’ props above, I still see plenty of value on the board.
Let’s start with his reception total. While he didn’t tear up the stat sheet in back-to-back postseason games for the Niners, San Francisco also relied heavily on its rushing attack in both matchups. While Kansas City is known for having a leaky run defense as well, Patrick Mahomes and Co. are going to score tonight – I don’t care how good San Francisco’s defense is (and it is very, very good). Thus, I see both teams moving the ball consistently through the air. Sanders averaged 5.40 targets per game during the regular season but I see that total jumping to 7-8 tonight and thus, I like him to get over that 3.5-catch number tonight.
A high catch total also gives us an opportunity to see Samuel rack up a bunch of receiving yards as well. Here is his output in games in which he caught four or more passes: 102 yards (Week 17 vs. Seattle), 31 yards (Week 16 vs. LA Rams), 76 yards (Week 14 vs. Saints), 134 yards (Week 11 vs. Arizona), 112 yards (Week 10 vs. Seattle), 40 yards (Week 9 vs. Arizona) and 87 yards (Week 2 vs. Cincinnati).
Out of the seven instances that Samuel caught four or more passes, he eclipsed 51.5 receiving yards (which is his total for Super Bowl 54) in five of those seven games. Thus, if I like him to reel in at least four passes (and I do), then I also must feel like he can get over 51.5 receiving yards (and I do).
Deebo Samuel Super Bowl 54 Prop Predictions: OVER 3.5 Receptions & OVER 51.5 Receiving Yards