Jimmy Garoppolo SB54 Prop Predictions
After only attempting eight passes in the 49ers’ win over the Packers in the NFC Championship Game, what are the best Super Bowl 54 prop bets for San Francisco quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo?
101 San Francisco 49ers (+1.5) at 102 Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5); o/u 54
6:30 p.m. ET, Sunday, February 2, 2020
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Public Betting Trends
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the Chiefs are receiving 57% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks.
Jimmy Garoppolo Super Bowl 54 Prop Bets
Total Completions: 21
Total Pass Attempts: 30
Passing Yards: 249.5
Touchdown Passes: 1.5
Will he throw an Interception: Yes (-140); No (+120)
Which Happens First: Touchdown (-180) or Interception (+160)
First Pass: Complete (-180) or Incomplete (+160)
Yards on First Completion: 8.5
Longest Completion: 36.5
Rushing Attempt: 2.5
Rushing Yards: 3.5
Rushing Touchdowns: Yes (+600); No (-900)
Garoppolo attempted only eight passes against the Packers in the NFC Championship Game, completing six of them for 77 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions. With Raheem Mostert going off for 220 rushing yards in the win, the Niners didn’t need much out of Garoppolo, who also had a quiet game against the Vikings (11-of-19, 131 yards, one touchdown, one interception) in the Divisional round.
That said, just because Garoppolo didn’t have big games versus the Packers or Vikings in the 49ers’ previous postseason games, doesn’t mean that he’ll struggle to produce versus the Chiefs tonight in Super Bowl 54.
Let’s take a look at his regular-season production, which will give us a better read on what Garoppolo is capable of, as opposed to the two-game sample size of the postseason. During his 16 starts during the regular season, Garoppolo completed 20.56 passes on 29.75 attempts for 248.69 yards with 1.69 touchdowns and 0.81 interceptions per game. His average pass attempt traveled 8.36 yards, while his average completion went for 12.09 yards. As far as his rushing numbers are concerned, he attempted 2.88 runs per game for 3.88 yards.
Now we have a better understanding of Garoppolo’s base line. Now let’s circle back to his Super Bowl 54 prop bets.
If you compare his regular-season averages to his Super Bowl prop bets, you’ll notice that the numbers are all very similar. These are where oddsmakers are getting their figures from when it comes to Garoppolo’s props. Thus, there’s not a ton of value to be had based on these projections.
Let’s take it a step further and look at the total for Super Bowl 54 (which is, ironically, sitting at 54) and then compare some of the stats Garoppolo put up during the regular season with similar totals. While the Niners didn’t have an over/under over 50 points during their final 10 regular season games, they did have a 50-point total versus the Falcons on December 15 and a 48-point total versus the Packers on November 24.
Against Atlanta, Garoppolo completed 22-of-34 passes for 200 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions. Versus Green Bay, he attempted only 20 passes, completed 14 of them for 253 yards and two touchdowns. That said, the 49ers jumped out to a big lead in that game versus the Packers and took the air out of the ball in the second half.
I’m assuming that tonight’s game will be close and high-scoring throughout. While there might not be much value in Garoppolo’s props, I’m projecting that he goes over for completions, attempts and passing yards because I believe Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will pull the Niners into a shootout.
Jimmy Garoppolo Super Bowl 54 Prop Predictions:
OVER 21 Completions (-110)
OVER 249.5 Passing Yards (-110)
OVER 30 Pass Attempts (-110)