SB53 Line Climbs to 3 But Only Breifly

Will Super Bowl 53 Point Spread Stay at 2.5? 2/2/19 Patriots vs. Rams

There is still over 24 hours before kickoff between Sony Michel and the Patriots and Rams in Super Bowl 53. If you’ve been waiting to see if the point spread would climb to the all-important number of 3, you may have missed your window.

Game Snapshot

101 New England Patriots at 102 Los Angeles Rams

6:30 p.m. ET, Sunday, February 3, 2019

Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia

Public Betting Trends

According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetNow.eu, the Patriots are 2.5-point favorites to beat the Rams. The total, meanwhile, sits at 56.5 points. As of this writing, 76% of the public betting tickets are on the Patriots to cover the point spread.

On Thursday, William Hill in Las Vegas moved the spread for Sunday’s game to New England -3. For roughly a day, they were the only major sportsbook in Vegas to offer the line at 3. At one point Friday afternoon, several other Vegas sportsbooks bumped the line up a field goal but that was short-lived. Now, every major Las Vegas sportsbook, from Westgate to William Hill to Wynn LV, has the line back down to 2.5.

Why are sportsbooks reluctant to move the point spread to 3? One reason is because sharps likely pounded the Rams at +3 as soon as it became available. With 76% of the betting tickets still on the Patriots, it’s unlikely that Vegas sportsbooks took enough action on the Rams to move the line back down to 2.5. The more-likely scenario is that the wiseguys came in with big bets on L.A. and it forced oddsmakers to adjust.

The other reason why sportsbooks don’t want to offer 3 is because it creates a “middling” opportunity for bettors that took the Patriots at +1 when the Super Bowl line first opened. If a bettor that nabbed New England at +1 comes back and takes L.A. at +3, then he or she could cash twice if the Patriots win by a one, two, or three-point deficit if they bought the line up to 3.5. Sure, that’s a tight window to cash on both teams but it nevertheless creates even more liability for books than already exists.

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