SB Prop Odds Picks
Tampa, FL – Prop wagers are out for Super Bowl 43 between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Arizona Cardinals and you will not believe how many things you can bet on this year in addition to the point spread.
Starting with the Super Bowl coin flip – which right now is -105 (risk $105 to win $100) on both heads and tails at online sportsbook Sportsbook.com – and ending with who will the Super Bowl MVP thank first (currently God is a big favorite at 4/5, followed by teammates 2/1, Does not thank anyone 7/2, family 4/1 and coach at 8/1), there are over 100 game, team and individual player Super Bowl prop bets currently available.
With so many different wagers available it’s a tall order to make sense of all that is being offered by oddsmakers. That’s why we will be having our team of expert handicappers break down some of our favorite SUPER BOWL 43 prop bets and give you their best 2009 Super Bowl prop bet picks.
The coin flip: For the most part, this is a dead on 50/50 shot. The books are charging anywhere from -105 to -115 depending on what book you shop at. Looking at the math, the books are “overcharging” the true odds and should be viewed as a “junkie” or “just for the hell of it” wager. Of the 41 prior Super Bowls, heads has a 21-20 edge. You will hear talk about how the coin is weighted due to the raised images on one side over the other, but despite the slight edge, DON’T BELIEVE THE HYPE! This is offset by the juice being charged by the sportsbooks.
Our pick: Coin Flip = Heads.
The National Anthem: The last time we checked, the over/under on the National Anthem was 2 minutes and 1 second. After hours and hours of breaking down all the trends and angles we think the “over” is a solid play. Just when it looks like the “under” is going to come in, our “inside sources” claim there will be the usual attempt to stretch out a chord to get the crowd “hooting and hollering”.
Our pick: National Anthem = Over.
Total passing yards by Kurt Warner: When we look at SportsInteraction.com, the current line is 265.5. On this prop, our experts are torn based on who they are backing in the game. If the Arizona Cardinals are to have any chance in winning the Super Bowl, Warner has to be able to pass on the top rated Steelers’ defense.
Our pick: Pick the game, then decide over or under.
Will the Steelers score in every quarter: We will lay the juice and go with “no” at -155. Even though the total is in the mid 40s, historically this is a pretty safe bet. Toss in the fact the Steelers could get up big and protect the lead or sustain a long drive in a quarter only to finish in the following one – we think this is a solid play.
Our pick: Steelers WILL NOT score in all 4 Quarters of Super Bowl 43.
Will there be a safety in the game: Even though we would never suggest laying -1200 on anything, if your book allows props to be parlayed, this might be the “gimme” bet just to toss in.
Our pick: Safety = No in a parlay only.
Longest touchdown scored: Right now the over/under is 44.5 and we like the over. One reason is due to the Warner deep attack and the fact the Cardinals are known to give up big plays. Another thing to factor in is the long commercial breaks that allow the offense to plot out their plan of attack and give the skilled speed guys to get a break.
Our pick: Longest touchdown = Over.
Will there be a lead change in the 2nd half: No at -230. In the history of the Super Bowl, the team leading at halftime is 32-8 (one tie). That is close to an 80% winning clip we only need to risk -230 on.
Our pick: 2nd Half Lead Change = No.
The amount of props you can bet now and on Super Bowl Sunday are endless – from serious game props that require handicapping and research to obscure ones regarding commercials. If you have a question or want to share your favorite prop, make sure to check in our forums now and during game day.
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Posted: 1/26/09 3:30PM ET