Bills vs. Chiefs Total Prediction
The total for Sunday’s AFC Championship Game between the Bills and Chiefs opened at 55 but has been bet down to 54.5. Is the under the smart play or is the over still the safe bet?
313 Buffalo Bills (+3) at 314 Kansas City Chiefs (-3); o/u 54.5
6:40 p.m. ET, Sunday, January 24, 2021
Venue: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Buffalo Bills DFS Spin
Josh Allen completed 23-of-37 passes for 206 yards and one touchdown in the Bills' Divisional Round win over the Ravens. The Ravens' secondary did a good job of limiting Allen's chances of hitting deep passes, but the third-year pro took what was given underneath and avoided turnovers. It's the type of win only the 2020-21 version of Allen can pull off. The Bills will have all of their pass-catchers healthy for the AFC Conference Championship, which will take place in Kansas City if the Chiefs beat the Browns on Sunday. Allen will have to play at his best to pull off the upset then.
Kansas City Chiefs DFS Spin
Patrick Mahomes said his toe is "feeling a lot better." Mahomes was clearly struggling to move on what likely was a turf toe injury last week, but he said the injury has improved a lot in recent days. He even went as far as saying "it wasn't as bad as it looked." Mahomes will start against the Bills on Sunday after clearing the concussion protocol, but the toe injury will be a storyline. During his playoff career, Mahomes has been more lethal on the ground. With Mahomes' injury status clearing up, the betting market has settled on Chiefs as -3 or -3.5 favorites.
Bills vs. Chiefs Betting Prediction
The under is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams, is 30-12 in the Bills’ last 42 games as a road underdog and is 5-2 in their last seven games played in the month of January. On the other side, the under is 4-1 in the Chiefs’ last five games as a home favorite, is 7-3 in their last 10 games versus a team with a winning record and is 5-2 in their last seven games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME OVER/UNDER PREDICTION: BILLS/CHIEFS UNDER 54.5