AFC Title Titans vs. Chiefs Total Prediction
With the total sitting at 51.5 is the total for Sunday’s AFC Championship Game set too high by oddsmakers? The Titans and Chiefs will kick off at 3:05 p.m. ET from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City.
313 Tennessee Titans (+7) at 314 Kansas City Chiefs (-7); o/u 51.5
3:05 p.m. ET, Saturday, January 19, 2020
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Public Betting Trends
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the Chiefs are receiving 63% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks.
Tennessee Titans Fantasy Spin
Derrick Henry rushed 30 times for 195 yards in Tennessee's Divisional Round upset over Baltimore. Henry became the league’s first running back since the merger to rush for at least 180 yards in three consecutive games, simultaneously finishing as the first in NFL history to run for 175-plus in the same postseason. Baltimore corralled the 26-year-old to 56 yards on 11 carries in the first half but watched him gash their front-seven for a 66-yard dash up the gut in the third quarter before lining up in the Wildcat formation and Tebow’ing a three-yard touchdown pass to Corey Davis. With potentially two games to go, Henry currently sits just 233 yards shy of trumping John Riggins’ postseason record of 610 rushing yards in 1982. The Titans will either travel to Kansas City or Houston for next week’s AFC Conference Championship game.
Kansas City Chiefs Fantasy Spin
Patrick Mahomes completed 23-of-35 passes for 321 yards and five touchdowns while rushing seven times for an additional 53 yards Sunday in the Chiefs’ Divisional Round win over Houston. The box score doesn't do this game justice as Sunday's rollercoaster at Arrowhead was somehow even more bonkers than the final numbers would indicate. Thanks to a muffed punt courtesy of the usually sure-handed Tyreek Hill and a number of other first-half blunders, the Chiefs found themselves in an early 24-0 hole. That would be a death sentence for most quarterbacks, but Mahomes, the reigning MVP, is not like most quarterbacks. He resurrected KC in breathtaking fashion Sunday, performing CPR on the Chiefs by hurling four second-quarter touchdowns, matching an NFL record set by Doug Williams in Super Bowl XII. Three of those landed in the waiting arms of Travis Kelce, including a masterful toe-tap by Mahomes, who somehow managed to stay behind the line of scrimmage. After surviving Sunday's early scare, the Chiefs will host the upset-minded Titans in next week's AFC title game with the winner headed to Super Bowl LIV in Miami three weeks from today.
NFL Betting Trends
The over is 6-1 in the Titans’ last seven games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
The over is 10-4 in the Chiefs’ last 14 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous contest.
The under is 4-1 in the Titans’ last five games when they’re a road underdog, which includes their back-to-back playoff wins the past two weeks. The under is also 6-1 in the Titans’ last seven road playoff games, is 5-1 in their last six playoff games as an underdog and has hit in five of their last seven contests coming off a win of more than 14 points. With the way Tennessee’s defense played in Foxborough and Baltimore the past two weeks, specifically last Saturday night versus the Ravens given the way Lamar Jackson and that offense had been rolling all season, I like the Titans chances of at least putting together a good game plan to slow Patrick Mahomes and Co. They made adjustments to slow down Tyreek Hill in the second half of the first meeting between these two teams and after the way he torched them for most of that game, I see Mike Vrabel and Co. using those adjustments today. On the other side, the under is 5-2 in the Chiefs’ last seven games overall and is 40-19-1 in their last 60 games as a home favorite.
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME TOTAL PREDICTION: TITANS/CHIEFS UNDER 51.5