AFC Championship Game Odds
Denver is 14-3 on the season, 8-1 at home and 10-6-1 against the spread. New England is 13-4 overall, 4-4 on the road and 9-8 against the spread. New England has won four straight over Denver, including a 34-31 win at home back on Nov. 24.
Trends show that the Patriots have covered the spread in four straight meetings with the Broncos, but the home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 games of this series. These two have hit the over in their last four meetings overall and in 7 of their last 9 meetings in Denver.
According to oddsmakers from Bovada.lv, Denver is the favorite at home, as the Broncos have odds of -5.5 points against the Patriots. The over/under total for the game has been set at 57 points (View Matchup). The opening odds for this game had Denver favored by 6. The spread climbed to a peak of 7 and hit a low of 4.5 before settling in at Denver -5. The over/under total opened at 54.5 points and slowly worked up to 57.
The Broncos are coming off a 24-17 win over the Chargers at home last week. Denver was held to just 363 total yards in the win, but held San Diego to 259 total yards as well and just 65 rushing yards. Denver averaged 457.4 yards per game on offense this season while allowing 356 yards per game on defense. Peyton Manning has thrown for 5,477 yards and 55 touchdowns during the season while Knowshon Moreno added 1,038 rushing yards with 10 scores. The defense has been led by Danny Trevathan, who had 128 tackles with two sacks, three interceptions and 10 pass deflections.
New England advanced to the AFC Championship by picking up a 43-22 win at home over the Colts last week. New England tallied 419 yards of offense in the win while allowing 386 yards to the Colts. Despite the yardage, New England forced four turnovers and had three sacks as a defense. The Patriots averaged 384.5 yards per game on offense this season, while the defense allowed 373.1 yards per game. Tom Brady threw for 4,343 yards and 25 touchdowns this season, while Julian Edelman caught 105 passes for 1,056 yards and six touchdowns. Chandler Jones has led the New England defense with 79 tackles and 11.5 sacks.
In terms of Injuries, Denver safety Rahim Moore (leg) is questionable while cornerback Chris Harris (knee) is out for the game. New England receiver Aaron Dobson (foot) is questionable for the game, as is punter Ryan Allen (shoulder).
The Public Bets for this game are currently backing the Patriots, as New England is getting 70% of the wagers with odds of +5.5 points at home against Denver.