Public on Saints, Sharps on Vikings
While public bettors are siding with the underdog Saints for their Divisional Round playoff matchup with the Vikings, the money is on Minnesota.
According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, the Vikings are a 5.5-point home favorite to beat the Saints, who opened as a 3.5-point underdog. The total, meanwhile, now sits at 46.5 after hitting the board at 44.5.
As of this writing, 62% of betting tickets are on the Saints to cover the spread. That makes sense, considering New Orleans has had an incredible season and employs the likes of Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram and Michael Thomas on offense, as well as a significantly improved defense.
That said, 54% of the money is on the Vikings. What does that indicate? That public bettors are on the Saints while the wise guys are on the Vikings. The line doesn’t jump like that if public bettors and wiseguys were on the same side. This is a true reverse line movement situation.
The over is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings between these two teams and has cashed in seven of the last nine meetings overall. The over is also 3-1-1 in the Saints’ last five Divisional Round playoff games, is 9-3-1 in their last 13 playoff games overall, and is 11-5 in their last 16 games played in January. That said, the under is 5-1 in the Vikings’ last six home games, is 4-1 in their last five games overall, and is 13-6 in their last 19 games coming off a win.
The favorite, meanwhile, is 4-0 at the betting window in the last four meetings between these two teams. The Saints are 1-4 against the number in their last five games overall while the Vikings have covered the spread in 42 of their last 59 games overall.