Are the Pats a good Divisional Round bet?
The Patriots have made bettors a lot of money over the years but how has New England fared as a home favorite in the Divisional round of the NFL playoffs?
We propose that question because according to oddsmakers from online sports book BetDSI, the Patriots are a 5-point home favorite versus the Chiefs this Saturday. The two teams will kickoff at 4:35PM ET when the NFL begins its Divisional round coverage of the 2016 playoffs.
Since the 2011 playoffs (so 2010 season), the Patriots have appeared in the Divisional round five times and in each of those games they were a home favorite. In 2011 they lost outright 28-21 to the Jets as a 9-point favorite but the Pats rattled off wins against the Broncos (45-10) in 2012 as a 14-point favorite, the Texans (41-28) in 2013 as a 9.5-point favorite, and the Colts (43-22) in 2014 as a 7-point favorite.
In their most recent appearance in the Divisional round, New England beat Baltimore 35-31 in 2015 but failed to cover as a 7-point favorite. So in their last five Divisional round games, the Pats are 3-2 against the spread as a home favorite.
The Patriots are also 5-5 against the spread in all playoff games since 2011. But in those 10 games, New England has won the game by an average margin of 8.9 points. That's interesting to note seeing as how the Patriots are only -5 this Saturday versus the Cheifs.