Texans vs. Chiefs Spread Prediction
The Texans did not play well in their win over the Bills Wildcard Weekend but are they being disrespected by oddsmakers in Sunday’s Divisional round matchup with the Chiefs? Houston is a 10-point road underdog today at 3:05 p.m. ET at Arrowhead.
305 Houston Texans (+10) at 306 Kansas City Chiefs (-10); o/u 51.5
3:05 p.m. ET, Sunday, January 12, 2020
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Public Betting Trends
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the Chiefs are receiving 59% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks.
Houston Texans Fantasy Spin
Deshaun Watson completed 20-of-25 passes for 247 yards and one touchdown in the Texans' 22-19, Wild Card overtime win over the Bills Saturday. He added a second touchdown as a runner, compiling 55 yards and that score on 14 rushing attempts. Following that third-quarter rushing score from 20 yards out where he bowled over several defenders at the goal line, Watson also ran in the two-point conversion. The Texans were hut out 16-0 in the first half, but Watson started using his legs more in the second half and was forcing the ball to DeAndre Hopkins to pull Houston back. Escaping a sack in overtime, Watson hit Taiwan Jones for a 34-yard catch-and-run deep into Buffalo territory to set up the game-winning chip-shot field goal. The Texans will travel to either Kansas City or Baltimore next weekend.
Kansas City Chiefs Fantasy Spin
Patrick Mahomes completed 16-of-25 passes for 174 yards, one touchdown, and one interception in Kansas City's Week 17 win over the Chargers. Kansas City entered Sunday as long-shots to swipe the No. 2 seed in the AFC away from the Patriots, but finished the afternoon with a first-round bye and hosts of the Divisional Round due in part to Damien Williams (12/124/2), Mecole Hardman's 104-yard kickoff return for a touchdown, and New England's astounding 27-24 loss to Miami. Mahomes didn't take a sack throughout the afternoon but still struggled to move the ball downfield, averaging 6.96 yards per attempt despite his 24-yard strike to Demarcus Robinson (1/24/1) in the second quarter. He also flashed his clean bill of health with seven scrambles, taking numerous hard hits from linebackers. The Chiefs will now have a full 14 days to rest before returning at home against an opponent to be determined in the Divisional Round.
NFL Betting Trends
The road team is 6-1 against the spread in the last seven meetings between these wo teams while the Texans are 5-2-1 against the number in their last eight road games, including 5-2 ATS in their last seven road contests as an underdog.
The Chiefs are 5-0-1 against the spread in their last six games overall and are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four home games.
If Saturday night’s matchup proved, 10 points is a lot to hand a team that just won a week ago. The Titans routed the Ravens and while I don’t expect the Texans to do the same to the Chiefs at Arrowhead this afternoon, I do expect Houston to keep the game close. Over his 39 career NFL starts, Deshaun Watson has only lost by double digits three times, including only once as an underdog. In fact, Watson is 13-4 against the spread in his career as an underdog and 10-8 outright as an underdog in his career. The Chiefs, meanwhile, have flubbed in this spot. They’re 3-8 all-time at home in the postseason and are 1-10 against the spread over that span. They were favored in all but one of those games. Yes, the Texans should have probably lost last weekend at home to the Bills. But that has nothing to do with them being able to cover today in Kansas City, where they’ve already accomplished the feat once this year (Week 6 as a 3.5-point road dog).
NFL Divisional Round Playoff Prediction: Houston Texans +10