Patriots vs. Dolphins Prediction

NFL Week 17 Predictions: New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins 1/1/17

Are the Dolphins a good bet to cover as a home underdog versus the Patriots at 1:00PM ET?

According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetDSI, the Dolphins are 9-point home underdogs versus the Patriots after opening as a 6-point favorite. As for the total, the number hit the board at 44.5 and has been bet up slightly to 45.5.

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NEW ENGLAND KEY TRENDS: The Patriots have covered in four straight games and are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven road games as well. They're also 7-1 at the betting window in their last eight conference games, are 5-1 against the number in their last six games when facing an opponent that owns a winning record, and are 8-2-1 against the spread in their last 11 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.

MIAMI KEY TRENDS: The Dolphins are a perfect 4-0 against the spread in their last four divisional games and have covered in four of their last five home games as well. They're 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games overall, are 6-2 against the number in their last eight games following a win, and are 6-1 against the spread in their last even home games versus an opponent with a winning road record.

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OUR PREDICTION: Outside of oddsmakers attempting to inflate the spread because it's the Patriots, I'm not sure why this line is nearly double-digits. There's still a scenario in which Miami could move up to the fifth seed in the AFC, so the Dolphins have plenty to play for this afternoon. The home team is 9-0 against the spread in the last nine meetings between these two teams, while the Patriots are winless at 0-4 against the spread in their last four meetings with the Dolphins in Miami. I like the points.

 

NFL WEEK 17 PREDICTION: MIAMI DOLPHINS +9

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