Citrus Bowl Total Prediction
Will we see a shootout when No. 13 Alabama and No. 14 Michigan collide in the VRBO Citrus Bowl on Wednesday at 1PM ET?
Game Snapshot & Odds
VRBO Citrus Bowl
263 Michigan vs. 264 Alabama
Wednesday, January 1, 2019
1PM ET – Camping World Stadium
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Public Betting Trends
According to the latest oddsmakers, Alabama is favored in this game, as the Crimson Tide are getting odds of -7 points against Michigan. The over/under total for the contest is listed at 58 points The public betting currently has 84 percent going on Alabama as the favorite. This information is subject to change, however, so be sure to check out our NCAAF Public Betting Page for updated figures on the game.
Wolverines beat up by Ohio State
Michigan had built some momentum toward the end of the 2019 season, but the Wolverines were still dominated by Ohio State at home, 56-27. Michigan is 9-3 on the season, 7-5 against the spread and 9-3 with the over.
The Wolverines have been a solid defense this season, allowing just 19.5 points and 293.9 yards per game. Josh Uche is leading the defense with 34 tackles and 8.5 sacks. Offensively, Michigan is putting up 33.0 points and 402.7 yards per contest. Shea Patterson has led U-M this season by throwing for 2,828 yards and 22 touchdowns. Nico Collins is his top receiver. He caught 33 passes for 681 yards and seven touchdowns. Zach Charbonnet is the top rusher with 642 yards and 11 touchdowns.
Bama falls to rivals
Alabama had a down year by its standards, suffering a pair of losses to LSU and Auburn this season. However, the two losses were by a combined eight points. Bama is 10-2 on the season, 6-6 against the spread and 7-5 with the over.
The Crimson Tide are one of the most explosive offenses in the nation. Bama is averaging 48.3 points and 513.5 yards per game. Defensively, Alabama hasn’t been as dominant as usual, but still allows just 18.8 points and 318.8 yards per game. The Tide lost Tua Tagovailoa to a hip injury. He had thrown for 2,840 yards and 33 touchdowns this year. Mac Jones has proven to be a capable fill-in. He has thrown for 1,176 yards and 11 touchdowns in his place. DeVonta Smith is the team’s leading receiver with 65 catches for 1,200 yards and 13 touchdowns, while Najee Harris is the top rusher with 1,088 yards and 11 scores. Anfernee Jennings is leading the defense with 73 tackles and 7.5 sacks.
College Football Betting Trends
Michigan has hit the over in four straight bowl games and in eight straight against SEC opponents.
The Tide are 7-1 with the over in their last eight bowl games and 21-7-2 with the over in their last 30 games on a neutral field.
I am surprised to see the total just at 58 for this game because I feel like this matchup should be similar to Michigan vs. Ohio State. While the Wolverines have a good defense, we saw what an explosive offense can do to it when Ohio State put up 56 on them in Ann Arbor. The Tide still have that explosiveness on offense, even with Jones at QB. Michigan has wilted defensively against these types of teams. Alabama also isn’t quite the strong defense we usually see. I think Michigan will be forced into a passing attack early due to falling behind. The Wolverines should have some success there and put up enough points to help the over hit.
Citrus Bowl Prediction: Michigan/Alabama Over 58