Iowa State vs. Memphis Bowl Pick

Autozone Liberty Bowl Iowa State vs. Memphis Predictions 12/30/17

The Memphis Tigers are favored to win today's Autozone Liberty Bowl at 12:30 p.m. ET but are they a bad bet to cover the spread against Iowa State?

ODDSMAKERS LIKE: Memphis. According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, the Tigers are now 4-point favorites to beat the Cyclones, who opened as 3-point underdogs before the line jumped. The total, meanwhile, sits at 67 points after hitting the board at 66.5.

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THE PUBLIC LIKES: As of Saturday morning the public was split on this game, with 50% of the betting tickets favoring Memphis and the other 50% favoring Iowa State. That said, 54% of the money on this game is on the Tigers.

INJURY REPORT: For Iowa State, quarterback Jacob Park left the team for personal reasons back in early October so he won't play today. Running back David Montgomery, however, is probable after suffering a knee injury in early December. Bryce Meeker (knee) and Oge Udeogu (elbow) are out.

For Memphis, running back Doroland Dorceus (undisclosed) and defensive back Jonathan Cook (undisclosed) are questionable. Ernest Suttles (suspension), Shaun Rupert (disciplinary) and Jackson Dillon (shoulder) are all out.

WHO WE LIKE: Iowa State. There must be some wiseguy action on Memphis for the line to jump a full point despite public bettors being split on this game, but I don't care. The Tigers have an explosive offense, one that averages nearly 48 points per game (second in the nation) and 548.2 yards per conest (4th in the nation). But Memphis doesn't play defense, either. The Tigers are allowing an average of 472.2 (121) yards, 279.4 passing yards (122), 196.8 rushing yards (99th) and 33.4 points (104) per game this year. I love underdogs playing against favorites that don’t play defense and Iowa State fits the bill today.

The Cyclones are also a perfect 4-0 against the spread in their last four non-conferene games, are 4-0 against the number in tiher last four games coming off a loss, and are 19-7-1 at the betting window in their last 27 games overall.

The Tigers, meanwhile,  are 1-4 against the spread in their last five bowl games, are 1-6 against the number in their last seven games played in December, and are 4-10-1 ATS versus a team with a winning record.

 

AUTOZONE LIBERTY BOWL PREDICTION: IOWA STATE CYCLONES +4

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