N.C. State vs. Mississppi State Bowl Pick
Will N.C. State ruin Dak Prescott's final game for Mississippi State when the two teams meet in the Belk Bowl today at 3:30PM ET?
After opening as a 7-point favorite, the Bulldogs are now a 4.5-point favorite over the Wolfpack according to oddsmakers from online sports book Mybookie.ag. As for the total, it opened at 59 before climbing to 60.5 points.
Mississippi State enters play today with an 8-4 record and finished the season with a 7-5 mark against the spread, while N.C. State went 7-5 straight up and 6-6 against the spread. With bettors usually favoring SEC teams in bowl season, it's not surprising to see that 81% of public bettors are currently backing Mississippi State at the betting window today.
The reverse line movement indicates that sharp action is on N.C. State. It makes no sense for over 80% of public bettors to be on Mississippi State yet the number continues to drop. There was similar movement in yesterday's bowl between North Carolina and Baylor, with the number dropping in favor of the Bears despite more wagers being placed on the Tar Heels. The line eventually climbed back up before kickoff, but Baylor still won the game outright.
It's easy to see why the majority of bettors favor Mississippi State. The Bulldogs played significantly tougher competition throughout the year, their offense boasts not only Prescott but also Fred Ross and De'Runnya Wilson, and with this being Prescott's final game motivation shouldn't be a problem.
But turnovers have been an issue for Mississippi State. They turned the ball over nine times in their final four games and their defense has had issues against the run. With this essentially being a home game for the Wolfpack, location is also working against the Bulldogs as well.
Prescott should lead Miss State to victory but N.C. State is searching for a signature win to end 2015 and has its own impressive offense. Look for the Wolfpack to keep the game close.
BELK BOWL FREE PICK: N.C. STATE WOLFPACK +4.5